New data is out, time to make a decision
Whether you’re considering a new type of office or retail space, or considering your renewal, new data out today from the National Association of Realtors indicates that despite a sluggish economy, commercial real estate is making gains in all sectors.
According to NAR, Office vacancy rates should decline from an expected 15.8 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.6 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Further, office rents are projected to increase 2.5 percent in 2014 and 3.2 percent next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 39.7 million square feet this year and 49.8 million in 2015.
When it comes to retail space, vacancy rates are expected to decline from 10.0 percent currently to 9.8 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Average retail rents are forecast to rise 2.0 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent next year. Net absorption of retail space is likely to total 11.5 million square feet this year and 19.6 million in 2015.
The verdict: office or retail?
While both office and retail space looks like they will see declines in vacancy rates, retail rents are projected to rise at a much slower rate than office rents, so retail space might not be a bad bet after all, if you’re considering both.
But as with any real estate, everything is local. Hyper-local even. For example, the markets with the lowest office vacancy rates in the second quarter are New York City and Washington, D.C. at 9.4 percent; Little Rock, Ark., 11.5 percent; San Francisco, 12.6 percent; and New Orleans, at 12.8 percent. Markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, at 3.2 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., 3.8 percent; and San Jose, Calif., at 4.7 percent. Northern New Jersey; Long Island, N.Y.; and Orange County, Calif., all have a vacancy rate of 5.3 percent.