In an era of expansive automation, it’s important to know where your hiring dollars are best spent. That’s why job trends are so important. With the refresh of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, we can take a close look at where the job market is going for the next ten years. Let’s break it down.
When we look at declining job growth, we see fields that are increasingly automated out of existence. Retail jobs are also under threat as a results of the domination of online shopping.
According to coverage of the report by The Atlantic, the BLS projects that 150,000 cashier job will be lost in ten years, and not all of those will shift over to order fulfillment jobs. The Atlantic also points out that the retail industry already dropped 120,000 jobs in the last two years, so it is very possible that this projection isn’t aggressive enough.
The BLS also shows signs of a continuing middle-class crunch in the job market. Jobs paying 30k-50k annually will only grow by 4.9 percent over the course of the next ten years.
For context, jobs paying 20-30k and jobs paying 50-70k will grow at 7.6 percent. A lot of full-time manufacturing and retail work falls into the 30-50k bucket, so it’s unsurprising to see those jobs eliminated in light of other trends.
Furthermore, jobs in rural areas and in manufacturing economies (from the Midwest through the deep South) will continue to shrink as well.
According to The Atlantic, “the fastest-growing jobs through 2026 belong to what one might call the Three C’s: care, computers and clean energy.
Care refers to “personal-care aides, who perform non-medical duties for older Americans, such as bathing and cooking.” Persona-care aides and home-health will likely created 1.1 million new jobs over ten years.
What’s even more impressive is that these jobs represent 10 percent of all jobs projects to be created in the next ten years. This isn’t entirely surprising when you consider that “the number of Americans ages 65 and older is projected to double by 2060, according to research from the Population Reference Bureau.
Additionally, The Atlantic points out “the share of the labor force over 55 will double by the mid-2020s – from 12 percent to 25 percent.” Other fields that show up under this category include physician assistants, nurse practitioners, and physical therapy assistants.
Clean energy jobs are likely to double in ten years, the only ones projected to do so by the report. Solar energy installers dominate the overall list; job growth is projected at 105 percent. Wind turbine technicians also see a 96 percent growth rate, the second best on the list. For context. The third place field only has a 46 percent growth rate. Moral of the story?
It’s a GREAT time to be in the renewable energy field.
While one would expect computer fields to expand, the rate of growth is some of the lowest in the report. Mathematicians, software developers and statisticians all round out the top ten, but their rate of growth doesn’t exceed 34 percent over ten years.
One final note of interest; The BLS doesn’t expect automation to significantly alter the economy for the next ten years.
Meaning, we might see minor changes as the technology continues to evolve, but it is unlikely to cause seismic shifts. For example, while self-driving cars are supposed to be a big deal and on the verge of major disruption, economists project that heavy truck-driving jobs will grow at the same rate as the overall job market.