College enrollment has dropped off by three million in the last decade, with a drop-off of one million due in the last several years as a direct side effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. This phenomenon clearly does not bode well for the future of the United States’ economy and workforce, with students who attend low-income schools and come from low-income families being the most affected. These changes are disproportionately affecting students from low-income schools and families, the very people who need higher education the most, and are erasing much of the work done in the last decade to help close the income and race gap between students, colleges, and socioeconomic backgrounds.
Enrollment in trade schools is skyrocketing.
Recently, trade schools have seen a 40% bump in enrollment across the board. Many students are enticed by the fact that trade schools are affordable and offer a quick turnaround, with students paying $16,000 or less for their program, and their training taking a year or less to complete. Beyond that, those who complete trade school is all but guaranteed a job on graduation day. Their earning potential is often two or even three times higher than the initial cost of attending the program. As many have found, the same cannot always be said about those who pursue a college education.
While the average cost of college at an in-state and public institution hovers at around $28,775 per year (according to Forbes) and takes an average of four years to complete means that trade students have a cheaper educational cost, (between $16,000 to $33,000 for the entire program, or about equal to just one year of a public college tuition) can get work in their field more quickly, and can usually make more than their educational costs in their first year on the job. Tradespeople make an average of $54,000 fresh out of trade school, which rivals the role average college student’s first salary of $55,000. It’s no wonder so many people are choosing to forgo a formal education for trade school!
The almost insurmountable cost of college combined with ever-growing inflation and a lengthy list of requirements just to get a post-college job, all for a low salary and with students having hefty loans to pay back, also play a key role in the downturn in the popularity of college.
The implication of fewer college-educated people, however, means that over time, the United States as a whole could face an economic downturn, as it gives rise to many more blue-collar workers. This can irrevocably alter the makeup of the workforce. Despite current unemployment rates being among the lowest they’ve ever been, the American people are already starting to see a shift in the labor market.
Already, we see a strain in the labor market when 25% of skilled workers in the U.S. exited the workforce following the Covid-19 pandemic. The economy has become so highly specialized that if the U.S. were to keep up the trend of losing college-educated workers, there could irreversible damage to the United States’ economy, deepening the ever-growing divide between the middle class and the working class, further reducing the ability to affect the global economy, knocking the United States out of the classification of a “global superpower.” To make matters worse, much of the United States labor pool is outsourced, and we are seeing the rise of artificial intelligence and robotics taking over many jobs, especially minimum wage jobs. While none of these factors alone vastly affect the U.S. labor market, this is only the tip of the iceberg.
So what can employers do when the makeup of the workforce starts to shift?
Employers could shift the focus on the years of experience rather than the type of education the potential employees have, as well as offering more extensive on-the-job training, which is already commonplace in some industries. Even for those with a college education, the requirements for entry-level jobs seldom match the salary, with many employers requiring a four-year degree, two or more years of experience, and fluency in different programs which vary from company to company. Employers, if possible, need to offer higher salaries with fewer requirements, as many young people are finding the pursuit of college, plus the various other requirements just to be considered for a barely above minimum wage job, while they’re drowning in student debt fruitless, so they forgo college altogether.
A post-pandemic society looks vastly different, and employers must adapt to keep up.
Glenn fm Naples
October 18, 2008 at 5:41 am
Yes, sales are improving in Florida – because prices have dropped substantially from the nose-bleed high values of two years ago.
We still have to be aware of the local markets and assess the market conditions on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis beyond just prices, but the financial conditions of homeowner associations and condominium associations.
Buyers are on the sidelines, because they are looking for the bottom of the market – the only thing is we don’t know when the bottom hits, until possibly three after its passing.
Steve Simon
October 18, 2008 at 9:04 am
If anyone ever needed a career change it is Mr. Yun…
Whether he was forced into the comments he has made in the past two and half years, or slightly pressured, or just terribly worng in his assessments; he virtually has lost all credability with most if not almost all of his base.
The NAR is now wasting any monies paid to this individual for assessment and commentary.
Just my thoughts:)
Glenn fm Estero
October 18, 2008 at 9:57 am
@Steve – I certainly would not want to be in Yun’s shoes. He is caught between a rock and hard place. If his assessments are negative – will the members of NAR – call for his blood? If his assessments are positive – he does lose creditability with not only the members of NAR, but also the masses. He is working for NAR and has to project a positive picture – well maybe make lemonade out of lemons.
Rob
November 7, 2008 at 11:50 am
As a Realtor I know how important it is to remain optimistic, a positive addititude is everything in our business.
Of course Mr. Yun has to be positive and upbeat, but let’s take a look at what’s really going on here. We all know why we are in this current mess; we can dwell on how bad it is and certainly blame those who are to blame.
Hey guys the bottom line is, we are in the business to buy & sell real estate; we adapt and find opportunities in every market. I believe we are at the threshold of a tremendous market and we need to be finding a positive message to send to our clients. Let’s face it perception is everything, instead of a terrible market, prices falling, foreclosures everywhere I would submit that it could not be a better time to buy! Interest rates are as low as I have seen them, inventory is up, sellers are willing to deal and the buyers are out there. Lets pass the message on that now is the time! We can create a market, one that is moving forward and safe to invest in.