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Lawrence Yun Speaks- Watching From The Sideline

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It’s a Mixed Bag

Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist says, “Tightening credit market and pessimistic buyer psychology are the two key factors in the nation’s current housing slowdown.”

Get on the Sidelines

Mr. Yun speaking to 400 on Thursday at Crye-Leike Inc.’s national conference in Sandestin, Fla., tells Realtors, “I see tighter credit availability and buyer psychology as the two key ingredients holding people back from buying homes today. I believe the confidence of buyers has been shaken by the current crisis on Wall Street and the ongoing housing slowdown. It has resulted in many buyers remaining on the sidelines.”

A Little Cautious Goodness

Mr. Yun went on to say “While the economy will be sluggish for the next three quarters, we can already see recovery out west in California, Nevada and Arizona and we’re also starting to see an increase in home buying in South Florida.”

The Basics

Reading between the lines, your real estate farm area just became the sidelines if you want to remain in the game as your shot at driving sales will be directly speaking to consumers about incentives to buy.

read source Crye-Leike Realtors

Benn Rosales is the Founder and CEO of The American Genius (AG), national news network for tech and entrepreneurs, proudly celebrating 10 years in publishing, recently ranked as the #5 startup in Austin. Before founding AG, he founded one of the first digital media strategy firms in the nation and also acquired several other firms. His resume prior includes roles at Apple and Kroger Foods, specializing in marketing, communications, and technology integration. He is a recipient of the Statesman Texas Social Media Award and is an Inman Innovator Award winner. He has consulted for numerous startups (both early- and late-stage), has built partnerships and bridges between tech recruiters and the best tech talent in the industry, and is well known for organizing the digital community through popular monthly networking events. Benn does not venture into the spotlight often, rather believes his biggest accomplishments are the talent he recruits, develops, and gives all credit to those he's empowered.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Glenn fm Naples

    October 18, 2008 at 5:41 am

    Yes, sales are improving in Florida – because prices have dropped substantially from the nose-bleed high values of two years ago.

    We still have to be aware of the local markets and assess the market conditions on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis beyond just prices, but the financial conditions of homeowner associations and condominium associations.

    Buyers are on the sidelines, because they are looking for the bottom of the market – the only thing is we don’t know when the bottom hits, until possibly three after its passing.

  2. Steve Simon

    October 18, 2008 at 9:04 am

    If anyone ever needed a career change it is Mr. Yun…
    Whether he was forced into the comments he has made in the past two and half years, or slightly pressured, or just terribly worng in his assessments; he virtually has lost all credability with most if not almost all of his base.
    The NAR is now wasting any monies paid to this individual for assessment and commentary.
    Just my thoughts:)

  3. Glenn fm Estero

    October 18, 2008 at 9:57 am

    @Steve – I certainly would not want to be in Yun’s shoes. He is caught between a rock and hard place. If his assessments are negative – will the members of NAR – call for his blood? If his assessments are positive – he does lose creditability with not only the members of NAR, but also the masses. He is working for NAR and has to project a positive picture – well maybe make lemonade out of lemons.

  4. Rob

    November 7, 2008 at 11:50 am

    As a Realtor I know how important it is to remain optimistic, a positive addititude is everything in our business.
    Of course Mr. Yun has to be positive and upbeat, but let’s take a look at what’s really going on here. We all know why we are in this current mess; we can dwell on how bad it is and certainly blame those who are to blame.

    Hey guys the bottom line is, we are in the business to buy & sell real estate; we adapt and find opportunities in every market. I believe we are at the threshold of a tremendous market and we need to be finding a positive message to send to our clients. Let’s face it perception is everything, instead of a terrible market, prices falling, foreclosures everywhere I would submit that it could not be a better time to buy! Interest rates are as low as I have seen them, inventory is up, sellers are willing to deal and the buyers are out there. Lets pass the message on that now is the time! We can create a market, one that is moving forward and safe to invest in.

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Economic News

How small businesses can keep up with the changing workforce

(ECONOMIC) Trade schools are booming as career outlook grows. College enrollment is down. The workforce is changing. How can small business keep up?

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Trade employees in the workforce

College enrollment has dropped off by three million in the last decade, with a drop-off of one million due in the last several years as a direct side effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. This phenomenon clearly does not bode well for the future of the United States’ economy and workforce, with students who attend low-income schools and come from low-income families being the most affected. These changes are disproportionately affecting students from low-income schools and families, the very people who need higher education the most, and are erasing much of the work done in the last decade to help close the income and race gap between students, colleges, and socioeconomic backgrounds.

Enrollment in trade schools is skyrocketing.

Recently, trade schools have seen a 40% bump in enrollment across the board. Many students are enticed by the fact that trade schools are affordable and offer a quick turnaround, with students paying $16,000 or less for their program, and their training taking a year or less to complete. Beyond that, those who complete trade school is all but guaranteed a job on graduation day. Their earning potential is often two or even three times higher than the initial cost of attending the program. As many have found, the same cannot always be said about those who pursue a college education.

While the average cost of college at an in-state and public institution hovers at around $28,775 per year (according to Forbes) and takes an average of four years to complete means that trade students have a cheaper educational cost, (between $16,000 to $33,000 for the entire program, or about equal to just one year of a public college tuition) can get work in their field more quickly, and can usually make more than their educational costs in their first year on the job. Tradespeople make an average of $54,000 fresh out of trade school, which rivals the role average college student’s first salary of $55,000. It’s no wonder so many people are choosing to forgo a formal education for trade school!

The almost insurmountable cost of college combined with ever-growing inflation and a lengthy list of requirements just to get a post-college job, all for a low salary and with students having hefty loans to pay back, also play a key role in the downturn in the popularity of college.

The implication of fewer college-educated people, however, means that over time, the United States as a whole could face an economic downturn, as it gives rise to many more blue-collar workers. This can irrevocably alter the makeup of the workforce. Despite current unemployment rates being among the lowest they’ve ever been, the American people are already starting to see a shift in the labor market.

Already, we see a strain in the labor market when 25% of skilled workers in the U.S. exited the workforce following the Covid-19 pandemic. The economy has become so highly specialized that if the U.S. were to keep up the trend of losing college-educated workers, there could irreversible damage to the United States’ economy, deepening the ever-growing divide between the middle class and the working class, further reducing the ability to affect the global economy, knocking the United States out of the classification of a “global superpower.” To make matters worse, much of the United States labor pool is outsourced, and we are seeing the rise of artificial intelligence and robotics taking over many jobs, especially minimum wage jobs. While none of these factors alone vastly affect the U.S. labor market, this is only the tip of the iceberg.

So what can employers do when the makeup of the workforce starts to shift?

Employers could shift the focus on the years of experience rather than the type of education the potential employees have, as well as offering more extensive on-the-job training, which is already commonplace in some industries. Even for those with a college education, the requirements for entry-level jobs seldom match the salary, with many employers requiring a four-year degree, two or more years of experience, and fluency in different programs which vary from company to company. Employers, if possible, need to offer higher salaries with fewer requirements, as many young people are finding the pursuit of college, plus the various other requirements just to be considered for a barely above minimum wage job, while they’re drowning in student debt fruitless, so they forgo college altogether.

A post-pandemic society looks vastly different, and employers must adapt to keep up.

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Economic News

Boomers retirement may be the true reason behind the labor shortage

(ECONOMY) Millennials and Gen Z were quick to be blamed for the labor shortage, citing lazy work ethic- the cause could actually be Boomers retirement.

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Older man pictured in cafe with laptop nearby representing boomers retirement discrimination.

In July, we reported on the Great Resignation. With record numbers of resignations, there’s a huge labor shortage in the United States. Although there were many speculations about the reasons why, from “lazy” millennials to the number of deaths from Covid. Just recently, CNN reported that in November another 3.6 million Americans left the labor force. It’s been suggested that the younger generations don’t want to work but retiring Boomers might be the bigger culprit.

Why Boomers are leaving the labor force

CNN Business reports that 90% of the Americans who left the workplace were over 55 years old. It’s now being suggested that many of the people who have left the labor force since the beginning of the pandemic were older Americans, not Millennials or Gen Z, as we originally thought. Here are the reasons why:

  • Boomers are more concerned about catching COVID-19 than their younger counterparts, so they aren’t returning to work. Boomers are less willing to risk their health.
  • The robust real estate market has benefitted Boomers, who have more equity in their homes. Boomers have more options on the table than just returning to work.
  • Employers aren’t creating or posting jobs that lure people out of retirement or those near retirement age.

As Boomers retire, how does this impact the overall labor economy?

According to CNN Business, there are signs that the labor shortage is abating. Employers are starting to see record number of applicants to most posted jobs. FedEx, for example, just got 111,000 applications in one week, the highest it has ever recorded. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the pandemic-induced increase in retirement is only temporary. People who retired due to the risk of the pandemic will return to work as new strategies emerge to reduce the risk to their health. With new varients popping up, we will have to keep an eye on how the trend ultimately plays out.

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Economic News

Is the real estate industry endorsing Carson’s nomination to HUD?

(BUSINESS NEWS) Ben Carson’s initial appointment to HUD was controversial given his lack of experience in housing, but what is the pulse now?

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NAR strongly backs Dr. Carson’s nomination

When President-Elect Donald Trump put forth Dr. Ben Carson’s name as the nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, NAR President William E. Brown said, “While we’ve made great strides in recent years, far more can be done to put the dream of homeownership in reach for more Americans.”

At the time of nomination, the National Association of Realtors (the largest trade organization in the nation) offered a positive tone regarding Dr. Carson and said the industry looks forward to working with him. But does that hold true today?

The confirmation hearings yesterday were far less controversial than one would expect, especially in light of how many initially reacted to his nomination. Given his lack of experience in housing, questions seemed to often center around protecting the LGBT community and veterans, both of which he pledged to support.

In fact, Dr. Carson said the Fair Housing Act is “one of the best pieces of legislation we’ve ever had in this country,” promising to issue a “world-class plan” for housing upon his confirmation…

>>>>>Click to continue reading…<<<<<

#CarsonHUD

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