Much of my time is spent focused on reading and listening to Dr. Mark Dotzour, Chief Economist for the Texas Real Estate Center, the model which all economists on the national and local levels should emulate. Dr. Dotzour has never been overly optimistic nor overly panicked and he has been right on the money for as long as I can recall as he forecasts locally and nationally (many of his speeches are available here as proof). National commercial developers considering projects in Texas often attend Dr. Dotzour’s forecast meetings before making a decision on their billion dollar deals, I kid you not. Even the most pessimistic, the most well educated, and the most experienced still look to Dr. Dotzour who seems to be the only one with a crystal ball.
Take for example what he has to say about Texas right now, “people are still wealthy; this country is still strong; but people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. So far, we’ve been pretty immune [in Texas] to what’s going on at the national level. But we have got to be careful. We’re isolated from the national problems, but we aren’t immune to them.” Dr. Dotzour is famous for being Rusell Shaw- like in his honesty and he never paints a pretty picture if there isn’t one to be had.
Dr. Dotzour even goes out on limbs with suggestions that are not always popular with legislators. From the Temple Daily Telegram,
“We need a Texas corridor desperately,” Dotzour said. With a projected 13 million more people coming to Texas by 2030, he said the state needs more infrastructure to help ensure continued economic growth.
Regarding ethanol subsidies by the federal government, Dotzour said with a food crisis in 33 countries, using corn for ethanol doesn’t make sense ethically. He also said making corn ethanol is “absolutely wrecking our economy.”
“You put a third of our corn crop in the gas tank, and what happens? Corn goes up. Wheat goes up. Rice goes up. Oil goes up. The value of the dollar goes to nothing, and gasoline’s $3.50,” he said.
It’s Dr. Dotzour’s raw nature that makes him the perfect model for economic leadership and I see a big future coming his way, don’t you? Take time to go through his speeches and read about his forecasts, he really is candid and amazingly accurate.
May 22, 2008 at 11:30 am
Thanks for the heads up Lani. Always nice to find some new real estate economics to geek out on.
May 22, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Though Texans don’t like to hear it, they’re fast becoming the Longhorn version of SoCal. That’s both good and bad, but real. Infrastructure is what has created most of SoCal’s problems.
Texas has the opportunity to get ahead of the infrastructure curve, especially as it relates to their hiway system. Boise is now facing this, and realizing they’re just inches from becoming SoCal — Potato Division. 🙂
May 22, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Didn’t mean to leave out Aggies. 🙂
May 22, 2008 at 3:13 pm
But “our” market is different, Jeff … how many places around the country have you heard that one?
May 22, 2008 at 3:31 pm
“people are still wealthy; this country is still strong; but people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. So far, we’ve been pretty immune [in Texas] to what’s going on at the national level. But we have got to be careful. We’re isolated from the national problems, but we aren’t immune to them.”
That’s what we love about Dotzour, you’re never going to get a photoshopped image of the sky.
May 22, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Jonathan — comes right after my favorite, when I was single. No, really Jeff, she’s got the best personality. You’ll love her.
May 22, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Maybe he can take Lawrence Yun’s job…have you seen the nutso forecasts he’s been lobbing up lately?
May 22, 2008 at 6:28 pm
NAR market opinions, like the predictions of fortune tellers, are “for entertainment purposes only.”
May 22, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Although I’ve asserted that Dr. Dotzour has a crystal ball, we all know no one does but I would argue that of all the economists I’ve spent time following locally and nationally, he is the only one that is unapologetic about telling what he sees coming, good or bad and never aims to give a self serving assessment of any market nor does he aim to do a tap dance to entertain. I hope you’ll take the time to follow the link to read some of his works, he really is brilliant and no, I don’t personally know him.
Hey Frank, who’s your favorite economist? 🙂 I’d love add one to my list that I follow!