I recently heard that the rate of homes not selling is actually SLOWER than the rate of real estate agents leaving the business. True? I dunno, but I decided to take a gander at the NAR site to look at membership “trends” … and Lo and behold …
|
Year |
Membership |
Increase of … |
|
2000 |
766,560 |
|
|
2001 |
803,803 |
+ 37,243 |
|
2002 |
876,195 |
+ 72,392 |
|
2003 |
976,960 |
+ 100,765 |
|
2004 |
1,102,250 |
+ 125,290 |
|
2005 |
1,265,367 |
+ 163,117 |
|
2006 |
1,357,732 |
+ 92,365 |
|
2007 (as of 11/30/07) |
1,357,993 |
+ 261 |
With an average net increase of just over 1,500 NARsters per month (averaged from July 2007 – November 2007), we will be “lucky” to maybe reach a whopping annual increase of 2,000 members. Even though there is still a net gain in agents, that is a 90k+ membership net DROP from 2006 to 2007.
Are we going to see negative numbers in net membership like we did back in the early 80’s and 90’s? … Maybe …
Of course I am more than happy to see my “competition” go Buh-Bye, but the numbers are still VERY interesting.
Jim Duncan
December 11, 2007 at 5:57 pm
Wow. The raw data is enlightening, humbling and somewhat uplifting.
The 2009 numbers will be truly interesting as dues are typically paid in December/January.
Charleston real estate blog
December 11, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Mariana, I was surprised to learn that Charleston was going to break even, about the same number entering the industry as those leaving despite 20% fewer homes selling this year. I sincerely wish them well (but I’d rather not have the other side of a transaction with them just yet).
Mariana
December 11, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Jim – No kidding! I am very interested in looking at how LOW the membership numbers actually hit before they climb back up …
Howard – Colorado is still gaining membership, but in Colorado Springs, we have definitely gone down by a chunk.
John Harper
December 12, 2007 at 9:40 am
The California Association of Realtors is forecasting a 15% to 20% decrease in agents by the end of 09.
Mariana
December 12, 2007 at 4:27 pm
John – I imagine by 2009 a lot of our competition will be, well, not our competition anymore.
Pensacola Real Estate News
December 20, 2007 at 1:21 pm
However low it declines is not what I think about. I think about how many more will come in after the market picks back up. Probably way too many.
Mariana
December 20, 2007 at 7:23 pm
… there will ALWAYS be the opportunists, regardless of the business, IMHO. Oh well. Those who are successful now will be WAY successful later.