Does the “Stripper Index” actually exist?
It is said that the “Stripper Index” can be the first indicator of a looming recession because dancers rely on cash tips and are one of the first “luxuries” impacted when the American economy is struggling. This early indicator isn’t quite an official number floated on cable news channels, it’s not found on any terminal, and it turns out that no one is actually graphing the data.
Currently, the “Stripper Index” (which should be called the “Dancers’ Tip Index”) exists solely as anecdotes from club owners and dancers, and are featured in one-off media pieces when folks question the economy’s stability.
So if you’re interested in the Stripper Index, is there a documented data point you could track as an ultra-early economic indicator?
There are five dancer-related numbers we can track, and five alternative indicators that you can tap into for making forward-looking business and/or investment decisions. Or, you could befriend a dancer or club manager so you can just casually ask in passing – your call.
5 dancer-related data points to track
You’re still reading because you too can see the value in this specific data points, so let’s dive into ways we can come close to recreating our own personal metrics without having to go interview local clubs in person like a legit nerd:
Nasdaq: RICK
RCI Hospitality Holdings is the only gentlemen’s club conglomerate that is publicly traded. They operate roughly 60 clubs in America (both adult dancers and “Bombshells” bars).
The relevance of tracking this stock is to see how same-store traffic combined with check-size to indicate the discretionary spending pulse of customers. This data isn’t exactly a leading indicator, however, as you’d have to read through their 10Q reporting every 90 days.
Your state’s business fees
Texas is a fabulous example of how you could track dancer-related data, because they have a “pole-tax” (formally known as the Texas Sexually Oriented Business Fee) wherein every gentleman’s club that serves booze must pay a $10 per head fee which is reported and paid quarterly.
In our home state, there is a transparency portal that publishes the receipts and shows direct headcount of paid club entries, so there is no sampling error, and it’s completely public. Data drops on the Comptroller’s site about six weeks after a quarter ends.
Entertainers’ wages
Every year around May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows total employment and median hourly pay for dancers, but the rub here is that it includes backup dancers and ballet dancers.
That said, big swings typically coincide with club hiring waves more than anything, so it’s not the best data to track, but could be combined with other info to make your decisions.
FRED revenue
The Federal Reserve Economic Data tracks local, state, and federal data across each industry – in this case, “Other Amusement & Recreation.” This category includes adult cabarets, gentlemen’s Club’s, strip clubs, pool halls, and everything else cool that your mom would be ashamed of you doing.
You can subscribe to FRED alerts, and new data hits roughly 10 weeks after each quarter concludes.
Google Trends
For a real-time sentiment gauge, get creative and use free global data to see what people are searching for. You can check customer demand by looking at “bachelor party ideas,” or “strip club near me,” and labor supply by “become a stripper,” or “exotic dance license.”
Get creative, and pull one-year and five-year charts so we how any of these terms spike during times of recession worries.
5 alternative indices to consider
If you’re more interested in the novelty of saying you track the “Stripper Index,” perhaps some other goofy indices are what you’re really after. These five alternatives can show up months before payroll data or GDP headlines, and are all updated for the public to review:
The Undie Index
A trend you’ll notice in most of this section is that we’ve made up our own names for the indices, but come along for the ride anyhow, won’t you? This one is actually called the “Men’s?Underwear Index” (HanesBrands “Innerwear” sales, found in the company’s quarterly earnings reports), and the theory is that when money is tight, fellas delay buying new boxers.
The Lipstick Index
When the economy struggles, smaller, more “affordable” luxuries are often the first line item on a budget to be nixed, so take another look at FRED’s MSRSUSA446 (monthly state retail sales for cosmetics/beauty), or perhaps Estée Lauder’s earnings reports.
The RV Index
Some analysts believe that RV orders dip significantly sooner than cars or houses, and since the RV Industry Association publishes a monthly shipment report, you can keep your eye on a pretty early indicator.
The Box Index
If there’s a cardboard box recession, we might have a full blown recession on our hands, so track corrugated box sales. Fewer boxes means fewer goods moving through our supply chain. Again, check the monthly FRED data on boxes for this potential indicator.
The Freight Index
Similarly, fewer freight orders means a pull back in consumerism – an early sign of economic troubles. Cass Transportation is a trusted source for this monthly data, and even if you’re not looking for signs of an economic collapse, this data can tell you the health of our current supply chain.
So which index will you begin to track, since we’re not lucky enough to have an actual Stripper Index? How will you know economic troubles are looming today or tomorrow, or if things are looking up? You have so many options!
