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Could rising mortgage rates hamper a housing recovery?

Sensitive from the aftermath of a housing crash, the industry is looking for positive and negative signs regarding the recovery. How will rising mortgage rates impact the recovery?

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Mortgage interest rates and housing

As the housing sector finally catches a break and begins showing steady signs of improvement, the industry is admittedly sensitive to any negative signs, prepared for the slow but blossoming recovery to end with no warning, and for the figurative rug to be pulled out from underneath them.

Several hiccups have led to some minor stress, but the swelling interest rates are truly what everyone is secretly hoping doesn’t put a big fat stop to the progress housing is making.

The future is now

Trulia Chief Economist, Dr. Jed Kolko says this month is the time to be watching for the impact of rising mortgage rates on home sales. The company dug into the numbers and made some interesting discoveries.

Using data from multiple sources from 1999 to 2013, Trulia traced out how these key indicators of housing activity respond after a half-point monthly mortgage rate spike like we had in May and June 2013. In Dr. Kolko’s words:

  • Refinancing immediately plummets in the month of a rate spike and then continues to drop in the following months. The current ongoing drop in refis in 2013 is, if anything, smaller than after other rate spikes in the past 15 years.
  • 1-2 months after a rate spike, pending home sales and home-purchase mortgage applications typically decline slightly – which is what we’ve seen after this summer’s rate spike.
  • 3 months after a rate spike, new and existing home sales typically drop modestly. That means we should see the biggest impact of the May rate spike in August sales data, which will be reported by Census and NAR later this month. But any drop in sales will be tiny compared with the refi plunge.

Longer term, what do rising rates mean for the recovery?

“The recent past shows that higher rates depress mortgage applications, sales, and prices, holding all else equal,” said Dr. Kolko. “But here’s the hitch: when mortgage rates rise, all else is NEVER equal. In fact, since 1999, higher mortgage rates signaled a stronger economy. The same is true now: a strengthening economy, as well as expanding inventory and loosening mortgage credit, is accompanying rising rates. These other factors will weaken the bite of rising rates and help push the housing recovery along.”

Tara Steele is the News Director at The American Genius, covering entrepreneur, real estate, technology news and everything in between. If you'd like to reach Tara with a question, comment, press release or hot news tip, simply click the link below.

Austin

Austin tops the list of best places to buy a home

When looking to buy a home, taking the long view is important before making such a huge investment – where are the best places to make that commitment?

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Looking at the bigger picture

(REALUOSO.COM) – Let us first express that although we are completely biased about Texas (we’re headquartered here, I personally grew up here), the data is not – Texas is the best. That’s a scientific fact. There’s a running joke in Austin that if there is a list of “best places to [anything],” we’re on it, and the joke causes eye rolls instead of humility (we’re sore winners and sore losers in this town).

That said, SelfStorage.com dug into the data and determined that the top 12 places to buy a home are currently Texas and North Carolina (and Portland, I guess you’re okay too or whatever).

They examined the nerdiest of numbers from the compound annual growth rate in inflation-adjusted GDP to cost premium, affordability, taxes, job growth, and housing availability.

“Buying a house is a big decision and a big commitment,” the company notes. “Although U.S. home prices have risen in the long term, the last decade has shown that path is sometimes full of twists, turns, dizzying heights and steep, abrupt falls. Today, home prices are stabilizing and increasing in most areas of the U.S.”

Click here to continue reading the list of the 12 best places to buy a home…

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Housing News

Average age of houses on the rise, so is it now better or worse to buy new?

With aging housing in America, are first-time buyers better off buying new or existing homes? The average age of a home is rising, as is the price of new housing, so a shift could be upon us.

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The average home age is higher than ever

(REALUOSO.COM) – In a survey from the Department of Housing and Urban Development American Housing Survey (AHS), the median age of homes in the United States was 35 years old. In Texas, homes are a bit younger with the median age between 19 – 29 years. The northeast has the oldest homes, with the median age between 50 – 61 years. In 1985, the median age of a home was only 23 years.

With more houses around 40 years old, the National Association of Realtors asserts that homeowners will have to undertake remodeling and renovation projects before selling unless the home is sold as-is, in which case the buyer will be responsible to update their new residence. Even homeowners who aren’t selling will need to consider remodeling for structural and aesthetic reasons.

Prices of new homes on the rise

Newer homes cost more than they used to. The price differential between new homes and older homes has increased from 10 percent traditionally to around 37 percent in 2014. This is due to rising construction costs, scarcity of lots, and a low inventory of new homes that doesn’t meet the demand.

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Housing News

Are Realtors the real loser in the fight between Zillow Group and Move, Inc.?

The last year has been one of dramatic and rapid change in the real estate tech sector, but Realtors are vulnerable, and we’re worried.

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Why Realtors are vulnerable to these rapid changes

(REALUOSO.COM) – Corporate warfare demands headlines in every industry, but in the real estate tech sector, a storm has been brewing for years, which in the last year has come to a head. Zillow Group and Move, Inc. (which is owned by News Corp. and operates ListHub, Realtor.com, TopProducer, and other brands) have been competing for a decade now, and the race has appeared to be an aggressive yet polite boxing match. Last year, the gloves came off, and now, they’ve drawn swords and appear to want blood.

Note: We’ll let you decide which company plays which role in the image above.

So how then, does any of this make Realtors the victims of this sword fight? Let’s get everyone up to speed, and then we’ll discuss.

1. Zillow poaches top talent, Move/NAR sues

It all started last year when the gloves came off – Move’s Chief Strategy Officer (who was also Realtor.com’s President), Errol Samuelson jumped ship and joined Zillow on the same day he phoned in his resignation without notice. He left under questionable circumstances, which has led to a lengthy legal battle (wherein Move and NAR have sued Zillow and Samuelson over allegations of breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, and misappropriation of trade secrets), with the most recent motion being for contempt, which a judge granted to Move/NAR after the mysterious “Samuelson Memo” surfaced.

Salt was added to the wound when Move awarded Samuelson’s job to Move veteran, Curt Beardsley, who days after Samuelson left, also defected to Zillow. This too led to a lawsuit, with allegations including breach of contract, violation of corporations code, illegal dumping of stocks, and Move has sought restitution. These charges are extremely serious, but demanded slightly less attention than the ongoing lawsuit against Samuelson.

2. Two major media brands emerge

Last fall, the News Corp. acquisition of Move, Inc. was given the green light by the feds, and this month, Zillow finalized their acquisition of Trulia.

…Click here to continue reading this story…

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