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Did Your Practitioner Fix Your ARM…

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or Make it Worse?

did your practitioner fix your broken arm?


When you break your arm, do you go to your family doctor, or do you go see someone at the ER that is equipped to deal with it? If you are like me, you go to the ER and request a specialist on top of that to make sure your broken arm gets fixed correctly so you don’t have to re-break it just to fix it again. The reason is that your family doctor doesn’t even have the tools necessary to tell you whether or not your arm is even broken.

So if you think you have a broken ARM, why go see a general mortgage practitioner who can’t even tell you straight up whether or not your ARM is really broken? Many Americans have already done exactly that and fixed their ARM even when it wasn’t broken yet. If they had gone to see a mortgage specialist, they could have avoided wasting all that money and making a big mistake.

Just because the media, your neighbor, or even your dog tells you that you need to convert your ARM to a fixed rate or face foreclosure doesn’t mean they’re right. If you dig a little deeper into what is happening to your adjustable rate mortgage, you may just find that it isn’t broke. You may even find it is better than you thought. So, don’t let a general mortgage practitioner prescribe the wrong medicine.

Take a look at the chart below to see what I mean…


Don't Fix Your ARM if it Isn't Broken


Since many ARMs are tied to LIBOR with a standard 2.25% margin, the black line is where your fully indexed rate would if you adjusted today. Interestingly enough, that black line has dropped below the light blue one which represents a 30-year fixed and guess what, it will likely keep going lower. Since the Fed won’t be happy until the Fed Funds Rate is back to about 1%, you can bet LIBOR ARMs are going to be a really good deal in the near future.

Since the media has bashed ARMs to death, you may find it surprising that over the timeframe of the graph, the LIBOR plus margin has been significantly lower than the 30-year rate for a while, yet didn’t exceed the 30-year rate by a large amount, and even then, for only short periods.

The bottom line is that if you had one of these common ARMs (LIBOR based with a normal margin, ie not subprime), you likely just wasted a lot of money. But take heart in knowing you fed the family of a starving mortgage broker. If you had gone to a mortgage specialist, you would have saved the money and likely been enjoying your rate drop.

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Shailes Ghimire

    February 5, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    Robert,

    That’s very good analysis. The graph shows that the Federal Fund rate and the 6-month LIBOR have a similar pattern over the past 13 years. Hence it appears safe to conclude that the trend should continue.

    Therein lies the major concern. These are uncertain times and I don’t know if people have the stomach for the kind of up and down an ARM has in store. Look at the 30year line. It’s almost flat compared to the other two. I don’t know if the media is the one touting he switch, but I know plenty of borrowers right now who’ll say “damn the savings” give me the stability. In a climate of falling real estate prices (in most markets) I don’t blame folks wanting to hold on to a rate (considering how low the 30 year is in historical terms).

    However, I do agree with your analysis. You have a valid point. I just don’t think rational thinking really trumps uncertainty at this point. That could be more of an explanation than anything else.

  2. Robert D. Ashby

    February 5, 2008 at 9:46 pm

    But wouldn’t rational thinking justify my point? If you rationaize, you would stay in your ARM as it makes sense. The problem is, as you eluded to in your comment, is the “fear factor”.

    People want peace of mind to settle their fears, showing irrational thought, and they don’t care about the cost (“damn the savings”). Of course if people thought and acted rationally (and in their best interests), they likely would have Option ARMs these days, but that is for another post(?).

    Don’t get me wrong, there are valid reasons to refinance from an ARM to a fixed right now, but my point is to think things through and don’t get pressured into it. The second point is look for someone who is willing to tell you to wait, even though they don’t get paid. Too many “practitioners” need money right and will sell their clients into anything, even if it isn’t in the client’s best interest.

  3. Shailes Ghimire

    February 6, 2008 at 10:12 am

    Robert,

    The practitioners needing money is a great motivator. I’m working with a few borrowers who should NOT refinance. There is NO reason at all – but they keep calling me saying that their other LO can do it. The problem is I never said they couldn’t do it – its just that they SHOULDN’T do it. So, that is the predicament I’m in. Irrational, yes.

  4. Benn Rosales

    February 6, 2008 at 10:36 am

    two things are happening Shailesh:

    1)they know they can do it
    2)but they don’t really understand why they shouldn’t when everything around them says they should-media, friends, other lenders who want to loan no matter what.

    so I think I would go back to the why, but the truth is they’re going to do what they’re going to do with or without you, do the shouldn’ts out weigh the shoulds is the real question

  5. Robert D. Ashby

    February 6, 2008 at 5:18 pm

    It is at times like those you describe when I wish I could hit somebody with a 2×4 through the Internet or phone and get them to wake up and see reality. The question I always ask myself is “can I live with myself after doing the transaction”? It causes me to walk away from some deals, but I can still sleep at night. In this case, I may still do the deal knowing I tried my best, but at least if I do it they will get a good deal and minimize their mistake.

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Economic News

Boomers retirement may be the true reason behind the labor shortage

(ECONOMY) Millennials and Gen Z were quick to be blamed for the labor shortage, citing lazy work ethic- the cause could actually be Boomers retirement.

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Older man pictured in cafe with laptop nearby representing boomers retirement discrimination.

In July, we reported on the Great Resignation. With record numbers of resignations, there’s a huge labor shortage in the United States. Although there were many speculations about the reasons why, from “lazy” millennials to the number of deaths from Covid. Just recently, CNN reported that in November another 3.6 million Americans left the labor force. It’s been suggested that the younger generations don’t want to work but retiring Boomers might be the bigger culprit.

Why Boomers are leaving the labor force

CNN Business reports that 90% of the Americans who left the workplace were over 55 years old. It’s now being suggested that many of the people who have left the labor force since the beginning of the pandemic were older Americans, not Millennials or Gen Z, as we originally thought. Here are the reasons why:

  • Boomers are more concerned about catching COVID-19 than their younger counterparts, so they aren’t returning to work. Boomers are less willing to risk their health.
  • The robust real estate market has benefitted Boomers, who have more equity in their homes. Boomers have more options on the table than just returning to work.
  • Employers aren’t creating or posting jobs that lure people out of retirement or those near retirement age.

As Boomers retire, how does this impact the overall labor economy?

According to CNN Business, there are signs that the labor shortage is abating. Employers are starting to see record number of applicants to most posted jobs. FedEx, for example, just got 111,000 applications in one week, the highest it has ever recorded. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the pandemic-induced increase in retirement is only temporary. People who retired due to the risk of the pandemic will return to work as new strategies emerge to reduce the risk to their health. With new varients popping up, we will have to keep an eye on how the trend ultimately plays out.

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Economic News

Is the real estate industry endorsing Carson’s nomination to HUD?

(BUSINESS NEWS) Ben Carson’s initial appointment to HUD was controversial given his lack of experience in housing, but what is the pulse now?

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NAR strongly backs Dr. Carson’s nomination

When President-Elect Donald Trump put forth Dr. Ben Carson’s name as the nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, NAR President William E. Brown said, “While we’ve made great strides in recent years, far more can be done to put the dream of homeownership in reach for more Americans.”

At the time of nomination, the National Association of Realtors (the largest trade organization in the nation) offered a positive tone regarding Dr. Carson and said the industry looks forward to working with him. But does that hold true today?

The confirmation hearings yesterday were far less controversial than one would expect, especially in light of how many initially reacted to his nomination. Given his lack of experience in housing, questions seemed to often center around protecting the LGBT community and veterans, both of which he pledged to support.

In fact, Dr. Carson said the Fair Housing Act is “one of the best pieces of legislation we’ve ever had in this country,” promising to issue a “world-class plan” for housing upon his confirmation…

>>>>>Click to continue reading…<<<<<

#CarsonHUD

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Economic News

Job openings hit 14-year high, signaling economic improvement

The volume of job openings is improving, but not across all industries. The overall economy is improving, but not evenly across all career paths.

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young executives

job openings

Job openings hit a high point

To understand the overall business climate, the U.S. Labor Department studies employment, today releasing data specific to job vacancies. According to the department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) for April, job openings rose to 5.38 million, the highest seen since December 2000, and a significant jump from March’s 5.11 million vacancies. Although a lagging indicator, it shows strength in the labor market.

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The Labor Department reports that the number of hires in April fell to 5 million, which indicates a weak point in the strong report, and although the volume remains near recent highs, this indicates a talent gap and highlights the number of people who have left the labor market and given up on looking for a job.

Good news, bad news, depending on your profession

That said, another recent Department report notes that employers added 221,000 jobs in April and 280,000 in May, but the additions are not evenly spread across industries. Construction jobs rose in April, but dipped in professional and business services, hospitality, trade, and transportation utilities. In other words, white collar jobs are down, blue collar jobs are up, which is good or bad news depending on your profession.

Additionally, the volume of people quitting their jobs was 2.7 million in April compared to the seven-year high of 2.8 million in March. Economists follow this number as a metric for gauging employee confidence in finding their next job.

What’s next

If you’re in the market for a job, there are an increasing number of openings, so your chance of getting hired is improving, but there is a caveat – not all industries are enjoying improvement.

If you’re hiring talent, you’ll still get endless resumes, but there appears to be a growing talent gap for non-labor jobs, so you’re not alone in struggling to find the right candidate.

Economists suspect the jobs market will continue to improve as a whole, but this data does not pertain to every industry.

#JobOpenings

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