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Home prices up slightly, is the real estate free fall finally over?

According to S&P/Case-Shiller now coming in regarding July’s home price index, revealing a fifth consecutive month of steady increases in home prices across the board. Between June and July, prices slightly rose by 0.6%, but the good news is a 3.2% rise from July 2009, showing a gradual rise as opposed to the jacked up bubble-inducing skyrocketing prices of the past.

The rise of 3.2% matches most forecasts for the summer but the slow rise shows the housing sector has remained weak with low sales and slowing housing starts.

San Francisco has seen the highest price increase over the last year having risen 11.2% while Las Vegas performed the worst and hit a new low in July having fallen 4.9% over the year.

“It’s bouncing along the bottom, it stopped that free- fall,” S&P co-creator Karl Case told Bloomberg.com. “The combination of the tremendous drop in prices, the fall in interest rates, the government going all in and buying mortgage-backed securities to keep mortgage rates low, and the credit, of course — it’s not surprising that it’s come to an end.”

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25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Rob McCance

    September 28, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    It’s just like the stock market, isn’t it?

    Drops 40% in 2-3 years, then “bounces back” by 3.2% in a year.

    And for those not intimate with the stock market, a 3.2% rise over the 40% lower number is basically nothing!

    100 less 40% is 60.
    3% gain on 60 is 1.8

    So you go from 60 to 61.8 and someone wants to call this a decent rise…and maybe even momentum.

    LOL

  2. Dunes

    September 28, 2010 at 5:32 pm

    July?

    Do you mean the July that Sales fell nearly 30%?..

    Sepy 23, 2010
    “NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Existing home sales bounced back in August after plunging nearly 30% in the previous month.”

    “Sales of previously-owned homes rose 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. That’s up from 3.84 million in July, but down 19% from a year ago.”

    “Mark Tepper, managing partner of Strategic Wealth Partners. “We’re still down 21.5% from June and sales dropped significantly in July, so the hurdle was just so low that you almost had to beat it.”

    The above taken from….https://money.cnn.com/2010/09/23/news/economy/existing_home_sales/index.htm?hpt=T2

    27% Drop in Sales “During” July and Summer Selling Season is over, lots of inventory on the shelf, more coming…
    Yeah the Free-Fall is Over and it’s all come to an end.. LOL

    • Lani Rosales

      September 28, 2010 at 6:10 pm

      This article pertains to home prices, not home sales. But you’re right, there are a LOT of moving parts to the housing sector outlook.

  3. Jason Improta - Calabasas Homes for Sale

    September 28, 2010 at 5:45 pm

    We are likely to bounce along the bottom and you can look at the stats from many different angles and come up with completely different results from the same time period.

  4. Dunes

    September 28, 2010 at 6:56 pm

    Yes I know the article was about Home Prices but was thinking there may be a connection between Falling Sales and more inventory arriving that may have some influence on “Prices” or the suggestion Prices have stabilized or we are Bouncing along the Bottom….

    Especially considering the Months sited as having increased..Hello..Tax Credit & when it stopped…27% drop in sales

    Also this Rise in Prices…perhaps higher end homes ($500,000 +) now being sold as Foreclosures/short sales or just to get out from under which would tend to make the Average sales price rise…especially if Sales as a whole are declining///

    My point is the message “Home prices up slightly, is the real estate free fall finally over?”

    Made why, to who and based on what?
    The average med Sales Price?…Please..the sale of more higher end homes/mortgages in trouble alone can cause that to rise…which would indicate more of a problem than a stabilization IMHO

    Sorry but perhaps 3-4 years of “Look we are near the bottom, we are at the bottom, we have stabilized, we are….” has made me a bit cynical”
    But looking at the amount of Buyers it has made many more than me cynical and more quick to question suggestions or “Expertise” from ANY in the RE Industry

    It nice if People in the Industry figure this or that and agree/disagree but the Reality is the Buck stops with the Consumer/Public and what they think or the Industry and it’s message/ “Expertise”…I’d say the count is 0 and 2

    Just my opinion and thanks for letting me share it

  5. Wayne Johnson

    September 29, 2010 at 7:54 am

    I find S&P/Case-Shiller to be such a waste of effort in its consolidation of individual area reports and making a national pronouncement about the state of real estate. Real Estate results are like the weather. If the average temperature in Phoenix is 10 degrees higher than usual does not mean Buffalo is 10 degrees higher too. Each area has its own results and coming up with a fictional average is misleading and, in my opinion, a waste of time and effort.

  6. BawldGuy

    September 29, 2010 at 11:28 am

    This reminds me of those in my market, San Diego, who told me I’d turned into DarkCloud talking when I told them buying local stuff was a huge mistake, back in 2007. Those who did were unceremoniously bent over the ‘we’re bouncing on the bottom’ bar.

    With some notable exceptions, those who buy in places like The West Coast this year will live to regret it — and won’t hafta wait long either. My money says prices will be lower this time next year pretty much nationwide.

    I hope I’m embarrassingly wrong.

  7. Bob Wilson

    September 29, 2010 at 4:25 pm

    DING DING DING DING! WE HAVE A WINNER!!

    “The average med Sales Price?…Please..the sale of more higher end homes/mortgages in trouble alone can cause that to rise…which would indicate more of a problem than a stabilization IMHO”

  8. Greg Lyles

    September 30, 2010 at 10:38 am

    From a macro perspective, using median home prices may suffice. But at the local level I have serious reservations about their validity. Suppose you went to the mall and selected 30 people at random, then measured their median height. A month later you did the same exercise, yet this time the median height was .25 inches taller. That does not mean the population as a whole is getting taller! It simply reflects the sample of people taken at that date and location.

    There is still room for prices to fall – and fall they will. The impact of excess inventory, shadow inventory and future foreclosures have yet to be flushed out of the system. And until they are, they will continue to exert downward pressure on pricing. Don’t mean to be Danny Downer, but a realistic view is the best way we can help our clients.

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