Meet Janet Yellen, the next Bernanke but probably better
President Obama’s Council of Economic Adviser and Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers sent a letter to the President this weekend, withdrawing from the race to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman, resulting in the White House issuing a statement today that current Vice Chairwoman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen would be nominated to replace Ben Bernanke when his term ends in January 2014.
Some claim Summers withdrew because it was made clear the Administration wanted to nominate a woman, while others point to the unlikelihood that he would have been confirmed, given vocal opposition, namely from Senator Jon Tester who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, among others who criticized Summers’ friendliness with Wall Street.
In contrast, Yellen is favored for her consistent position that regulators have the power to police but that banks should fortify themselves against economic undulations. Yellen will likely continue most of Bernanke’s policies, having been a major part of formulating many of them, and is credited for pushing Bernanke to think creatively to stimulate the economy.
Yellen: no lapdog
Most impressive about Yellen is her crystal ball – according to The Wall Street Journal, between 2009 and 2012, of 700 predictions made in speeches and congressional testimony by 14 Fed policymakers, Yellen was the most accurate of all, even warning of the real estate bubble in 2005, when doing so was an extremely unpopular position to hold.
Additionally, Yellen appears to be more independent than Summers would have been, and with the White House stuttering as they nominate her, it appears she is not the lapdog the Administration had hoped for, but will not likely shift policy too far from their current state.
Yellen is experienced. Extremely experienced.
Over the years, Yellen has held the following positions:
- 2010–present Vice Chairwoman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System
- 2004–2010 President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
- 1997–1999 Chairwoman, President’s Council of Economic Advisors
- 1994–1997 Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 1985–present Professor, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley
- 1982–1985 Associate Professor, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley
- 1980–1982 Assistant Professor, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley
- 1978–1980 Lecturer, London School of Economics and Political Science
- 1977–1978 Economist, Division of International Finance, Trade and Financial Studies Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 1971–1976 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University
- 1974 Research Fellow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Additionally, she has served as:
- President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
- Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2001
- Vice President, Western Economics Association, 2001
- Fellow, Yale Corporation 2000–
- Member, National Academy of Sciences Panel on Ensuring the Best Presidential Science and Technology Appointments, 2000
- Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999–
- Advisory Board, Center for International Political Economy, 1999–
- Advisory Board, Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, 1999
- Chairwoman: Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 1997–1999
- President’s Interagency Committee on Women’s Business Enterprise (1997)
- Member and adviser: Brookings Panel on Economic Activity (senior advisor); Advisor Panel in Economics, National Science Foundation;
- Adviser: Congressional Budget Office
- Research fellow: Yale University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Trustee of the Economists for Peace and Security
Video of Yellen’s 2012 Berkeley speech:
[pl_video type=”youtube” id=”XBW60d4PUfY”]
How small businesses can keep up with the changing workforce
(ECONOMIC) Trade schools are booming as career outlook grows. College enrollment is down. The workforce is changing. How can small business keep up?
College enrollment has dropped off by three million in the last decade, with a drop-off of one million due in the last several years as a direct side effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. This phenomenon clearly does not bode well for the future of the United States’ economy and workforce, with students who attend low-income schools and come from low-income families being the most affected. These changes are disproportionately affecting students from low-income schools and families, the very people who need higher education the most, and are erasing much of the work done in the last decade to help close the income and race gap between students, colleges, and socioeconomic backgrounds.
Enrollment in trade schools is skyrocketing.
Recently, trade schools have seen a 40% bump in enrollment across the board. Many students are enticed by the fact that trade schools are affordable and offer a quick turnaround, with students paying $16,000 or less for their program, and their training taking a year or less to complete. Beyond that, those who complete trade school is all but guaranteed a job on graduation day. Their earning potential is often two or even three times higher than the initial cost of attending the program. As many have found, the same cannot always be said about those who pursue a college education.
While the average cost of college at an in-state and public institution hovers at around $28,775 per year (according to Forbes) and takes an average of four years to complete means that trade students have a cheaper educational cost, (between $16,000 to $33,000 for the entire program, or about equal to just one year of a public college tuition) can get work in their field more quickly, and can usually make more than their educational costs in their first year on the job. Tradespeople make an average of $54,000 fresh out of trade school, which rivals the role average college student’s first salary of $55,000. It’s no wonder so many people are choosing to forgo a formal education for trade school!
The almost insurmountable cost of college combined with ever-growing inflation and a lengthy list of requirements just to get a post-college job, all for a low salary and with students having hefty loans to pay back, also play a key role in the downturn in the popularity of college.
The implication of fewer college-educated people, however, means that over time, the United States as a whole could face an economic downturn, as it gives rise to many more blue-collar workers. This can irrevocably alter the makeup of the workforce. Despite current unemployment rates being among the lowest they’ve ever been, the American people are already starting to see a shift in the labor market.
Already, we see a strain in the labor market when 25% of skilled workers in the U.S. exited the workforce following the Covid-19 pandemic. The economy has become so highly specialized that if the U.S. were to keep up the trend of losing college-educated workers, there could irreversible damage to the United States’ economy, deepening the ever-growing divide between the middle class and the working class, further reducing the ability to affect the global economy, knocking the United States out of the classification of a “global superpower.” To make matters worse, much of the United States labor pool is outsourced, and we are seeing the rise of artificial intelligence and robotics taking over many jobs, especially minimum wage jobs. While none of these factors alone vastly affect the U.S. labor market, this is only the tip of the iceberg.
So what can employers do when the makeup of the workforce starts to shift?
Employers could shift the focus on the years of experience rather than the type of education the potential employees have, as well as offering more extensive on-the-job training, which is already commonplace in some industries. Even for those with a college education, the requirements for entry-level jobs seldom match the salary, with many employers requiring a four-year degree, two or more years of experience, and fluency in different programs which vary from company to company. Employers, if possible, need to offer higher salaries with fewer requirements, as many young people are finding the pursuit of college, plus the various other requirements just to be considered for a barely above minimum wage job, while they’re drowning in student debt fruitless, so they forgo college altogether.
A post-pandemic society looks vastly different, and employers must adapt to keep up.
Boomers retirement may be the true reason behind the labor shortage
(ECONOMY) Millennials and Gen Z were quick to be blamed for the labor shortage, citing lazy work ethic- the cause could actually be Boomers retirement.
In July, we reported on the Great Resignation. With record numbers of resignations, there’s a huge labor shortage in the United States. Although there were many speculations about the reasons why, from “lazy” millennials to the number of deaths from Covid. Just recently, CNN reported that in November another 3.6 million Americans left the labor force. It’s been suggested that the younger generations don’t want to work but retiring Boomers might be the bigger culprit.
Why Boomers are leaving the labor force
CNN Business reports that 90% of the Americans who left the workplace were over 55 years old. It’s now being suggested that many of the people who have left the labor force since the beginning of the pandemic were older Americans, not Millennials or Gen Z, as we originally thought. Here are the reasons why:
- Boomers are more concerned about catching COVID-19 than their younger counterparts, so they aren’t returning to work. Boomers are less willing to risk their health.
- The robust real estate market has benefitted Boomers, who have more equity in their homes. Boomers have more options on the table than just returning to work.
- Employers aren’t creating or posting jobs that lure people out of retirement or those near retirement age.
As Boomers retire, how does this impact the overall labor economy?
According to CNN Business, there are signs that the labor shortage is abating. Employers are starting to see record number of applicants to most posted jobs. FedEx, for example, just got 111,000 applications in one week, the highest it has ever recorded. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the pandemic-induced increase in retirement is only temporary. People who retired due to the risk of the pandemic will return to work as new strategies emerge to reduce the risk to their health. With new varients popping up, we will have to keep an eye on how the trend ultimately plays out.
Is the real estate industry endorsing Carson’s nomination to HUD?
(BUSINESS NEWS) Ben Carson’s initial appointment to HUD was controversial given his lack of experience in housing, but what is the pulse now?
NAR strongly backs Dr. Carson’s nomination
When President-Elect Donald Trump put forth Dr. Ben Carson’s name as the nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, NAR President William E. Brown said, “While we’ve made great strides in recent years, far more can be done to put the dream of homeownership in reach for more Americans.”
At the time of nomination, the National Association of Realtors (the largest trade organization in the nation) offered a positive tone regarding Dr. Carson and said the industry looks forward to working with him. But does that hold true today?
The confirmation hearings yesterday were far less controversial than one would expect, especially in light of how many initially reacted to his nomination. Given his lack of experience in housing, questions seemed to often center around protecting the LGBT community and veterans, both of which he pledged to support.
In fact, Dr. Carson said the Fair Housing Act is “one of the best pieces of legislation we’ve ever had in this country,” promising to issue a “world-class plan” for housing upon his confirmation…
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