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CRISIS…

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Be Prepared

“The next 180 days may be the toughest economic days we will ever experience in our lifetime.”

This was spoken by Gary Keller at the recent Keller Williams Family Reunion I attend in Orlando.I admire someone of Gary’s stature who pulls no punches. Not many leaders are willing to do that, including our own trade organization.

There was palatable silence in the room of over 6000 Realtors.

What has happened?

Historically, our housing market has increased by an average of 4% per year, until…. 2000 to 2005 where homes appreciated 7 to 13%. Those were the good old days where it took no skill to sell a home.  But, it was not sustainable as we are finding out. Note the graph is for the last 20 years.

Had home prices continued to grow by the average 4% we would be around $198,044. Which is approximately where we are now.  I don’t know about your area, but in Ann Arbor first time homebuyers were shut out of the market. They could not afford to live in the city.

The Silver Lining

According to NAR, first time home buyers made up 41% of the market share in 2008. The market is correcting itself and letting the first time home buyers back in.

Our economy is cyclical.  Did we think we would be exempt from ever having a correction?  Well truth be told I never really studied the market.  What is happening today has happened before. That is why it is called a cycle. See below why we HAD to correct? Peoples incomes were not keeping up with the housing appreciation.

So what do we do?

1)    Cut expenses to bare bones.
2)    Work harder than we ever have.
3)    Make you first priority Lead Generation and do NOTHING else until that is done.
4)    Be willing to do whatever it takes, Shift your strategy.

Are we in a C.R.I.S.I.S?  You betcha.

Charts from the Power Point at KW Family Reunion, Photo by Missy Caulk

Written by Missy Caulk, Associate Broker at Keller Williams Ann Arbor. Missy is the author of Ann Arbor Real Estate Talk and Blog Ann Arbor, and is also the Director for the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors and Member of MLS and Grievance Committee's.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Matt Stigliano

    March 2, 2009 at 7:52 pm

    Missy – As someone who owned a home in CA between 2001 and 2004, I saw how the run up was affecting everyone. A home in my neighborhood, a quiet suburban neighborhood – perfect for a good starter home for a young couple, nothing fancy – this home went for $1.2 million. It was mind numbing. It was a tiny house, built in the 1940s and hadn’t been upgraded in awhile. It just didn’t make sense. It was out of control. I sold our house after three years and wound up with a 30% appreciation on our original purchase. We didn’t upgrade anything or do anything extra except cut down a really ugly bush and plant a few flowers. It was bound to happen eventually (as cycles have predicted over and over again).

    Your advice is so very true and I’ll be thinking about it each day. Thanks Missy!

  2. Missy Caulk

    March 2, 2009 at 10:42 pm

    Matt, I had dinner with a co-worker one night, she had just moved here from CA. She told me she stood at her fax machine as pages and pages of offers on her home coming in.

    I would not have believed it if I had not heard it with my own ears.

    She was able to buy in one of the top neighborhoods in A2 where most professors live.

    I think she was 25 years old.

    Glad you liked this it really helped me see the numbers and I could have a better idea of what we were going through.

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Conference Coverage

Techie’s guide to NAR’s mid-year meetings

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Are you coming to NAR’s Mid Year Meetings in Washington DC on May 11-13? If so, here’s a quick and dirty guide to what to check out and where to grab a cocktail. If you are going to be at the meetings please be sure and let me know, in the comments or DM me @nartech. I’d love to meet the Agent Genius crowd IRL.

Follow Along at MidYear Live

Even if you aren’t going to be in DC you can still follow the action at Mid Year Live.

Midyear Live brings all the news and conversation about the Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo direct to you. Visit Midyear Live between May 11-14 to check out Twitter and Facebook coverage, follow featured NAR members as they attend the event, and view news reports and recorded sessions.

From the Center for Real Estate Technology—Throughout the meetings…

Starting Tuesday, May 11, CRT is sponsoring the Wi-Fi area in the Marriott Wardman Park in the Maryland Foyer.  It will be available 24 hrs a day thru Saturday 2pm.
The Bloggers’ Lounge opens at the Omni in the Forum Room, Tues – Thurs 10am – 6pm and Friday from 10am – 4pm.

Wednesday May 12:  Business Issues Committee 10:00 AM-Noon, Marriott Wardman, Salon 3

This is where technology policy issues are discussed. If you have an interest in issues like data security and privacy, net neutrality and other tech policy issues, come and observe the Business Issues Committee and say hello. I am one of the staff executives for this committee.

Wednesday May 12: Tweetup 5:00-7:00 PM Marriot Wardman Park Lobby

To RSVP and more info.

Wednesday May 12 Raise the Roof Event 5:00PM-8:00PM Tabaq Bistro, 1336 U Street

Cocktails and Hors D’Oeuvres on trendy U Street. RSVP to erin@listhub.com with your full name and company by May 3.

Thursday May 13: Business Technology Peer Breakout Sessions 8:00AM-11:00 AM, Omni Shoram Ambassador Room

Garron Selliken, Todd Carpenter, Heather Elias, Keith Garner, Tina Merritt, Jeff Allen, Kelley Koehler, Dale Chumbley, Nobu Hata, Greg Carpenter, among others will be on hand to discuss tech topics that all real estate professionals should know about.  Twitter, Facebook, Yelp, Market Stats, Converting web leads to clients, mobile apps, and other business tools will be discussed during these informal conversations.

Thursday May 13: Business Technology Forum 3:00PM-5:00PM, Omni Shoram Empire Room

Hear what industry thought leaders have to share about today’s and upcoming tech trends.
Jeff Allen, Heather Elias, Garron Selliken, and Aaron Wheeler share their experience & insights on how technology is impacting their day-to-day business.  Audience questions are welcome.

Friday May 14: LinkedIn Breakfast 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM, Omni Shoram, Bloggers Lounge

Join Todd Carpenter and other NAR LinkedIn members for coffee and danish. For more info

If you know of something I missed, please let me know in the comments. Hope to see you in DC!

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Conference Coverage

National Association of REALTORS Convention 2014

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It’s Novermber 2014…

nar chicago…and we are all excited about the NAR convention this year.

I can’t wait to go through Finance World where we find the latest on nano-mortgage technology from Bank of United States (the company after the B of A/Citibank/ J P Morgan Chase merger) where an iris scan and fingerprints get done and the each borrower with less than 20% down get to do the new PMI, Person Mortgage Insurance, where they assign one of their friends or relatives as collateral until the loan gets paid down to 78%.

Ah, then the new key sharing device from GeBallMart (the merger result of GE, Major League Baseball and Wal-Mart) which makes your take the SATs again (paying the 475 Euro fee) in order to do a digital iPhone7.9 puzzle in order to be escorted into a property from a member of Blackwater Realty Security Services (a subsidiary of the CIA- a deal made in order to get people health care).

Ah, and the special speakers.  There’s inspiration on how to turn your life around when there are only 11 trashy women in your life that you sleep with.  Amazing how you can go from one sport to another and then to another and go from the lowest lows to the highest highers.  Yes, I am talking about Professional Bowling’s superstar, Tiger “Balls” Woods.

I can’t wait to hear was he has to say about life’s ups and downs now that my fellow agents and I have had the commissions we make revealed to the buyer before they even see a house and how the government maximized the maximum amounts to $500 for door opening/agreement and $1000 for door opening/agreement and settlement attendance.

Just like the mortgage brokers that got messed with in 09/10, we should have seen it coming but instead we lived high on the hog and laughed at the public and especially Congress.

But I can be thankful for the fact that I don’t have to fly on UseLess Airline and stay at the MarryRot in the beige rooms with the bed bugs that are the size of New York rats, I can stay home and see all that’s happening on my SuperMac 7 Apple computer with smellovision, video and scan-pay ability.

The best and the worst part is no real hangovers!

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Conference Coverage

Inman’s Got Enough Money. Let’s Give Some To MFFO

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It doesn’t get any better than this – you can actually get Inman Connect Tickets and help a charity at the same time!  I was the lucky winner of Inman Real Estate Connect Registration Passes and with the creative help of some friends (thanks @tcar and @andykaufman) decided to auction them for charity.

Inman Connect San Francisco
I’m sure @jbern had no clue what was going to happen when he started the competition: What’s Your Tweet Worth? ….between Jay Thomson’s raffle and this auction, there are some creative minds at work to help our colleagues as well as great charities.

So here’s what I would love for you to do –

1.  go place a bid

2   spread the word  **tweet it! facebook it! email it! **

3. check on the bid

4.  spread the word again **tweet it! facebook it! email it! **

The highest bidder will win full registration to Inman Connect San Francisco (both Inman Connect and Blogger’s Connect passes) and proceeds will go to Mothers Fighting For Others (that’s a $939 value).  What are you waiting for??? Go Bid!  We will be announcing the winner before the weekend.

**thanks for the tix Inman!!  Let’s see how much money we can raise**

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