We typically ignore all of the new, rushed rankings of geographies during the COVID-times, but the National Association of Realtors (NAR) just put out a well thought out argument for their top 30 counties for working from home, taking into account internet connectivity, the percentage of workers in office-related jobs, home affordability, urbanization, and a county’s population growth.

Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but the top 10 looks like a map of the old Big 12 football conference schedule back when it was the Southwest Conference, just saying…

The report analyzes the aforementioned factors that “support the remote work trend,” which we firmly believe will drive real estate purchases for years to come as employers begin implementing more permanent flex work options.

Texas leads all states with 7 counties among the top 30, but for the sake of fairness, here is the top 10, in which we painfully acknowledge Georgia as the top spot stealer:

1. Forsyth County, Georgia
2. Douglas County, Colorado
3. Los Alamos County, New Mexico
4. Collin County, Texas
5. Loudoun County, Virginia
6. Hamilton County, Indiana
7. Williamson County, Tennessee
8. Delaware County, Ohio
9. Broomfield County, Colorado
10. Dallas County, Iowa

“The coronavirus pandemic greatly accelerated the number of workers who are able to work from home,” notes NAR Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Possibly a quarter of the labor force may be permitted to work from anywhere outside of the office even after a vaccine is discovered – compared to only 5% prior to the pandemic – and this will greatly change the landscape of where people buy homes.”

NAR President Vince Malta observes that location options are not the only changes for potential homebuyers, but that as remote work becomes more commonplace, “we may see buyers seek larger properties that offer space for a potential home office and other features that have become more valuable as a result of this pandemic.” Aha!

Malta adds, “The growing trend and historically-low mortgage rates are spurring potential homebuyers to consider a broader range of options and rethink what’s important to them in the long term.”

In a statement, NAR indicates, “The growing number of people working remotely also impacts commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, with future office sizes and locations potentially changing as a result.”

Dr. Yun states that the future of commercial real estate “appears uncertain” as companies reorganize “from having a central business district headquarters to several suburban satellite offices.”

The bright spot, however, is retail. “One can reasonably expect to see some growth in the number of smaller stores in the top 30 counties coming at the expense of similar establishments near downtown office buildings,” Dr. Yun concluded.

Below is a breakdown of their methodology:

Like all other housing economic indicators, home purchase contract signings jumped 5.9% in July, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI).

This marks the third consecutive month of growth, and all regions saw rising pending home sales during this time in annual and monthly improvements. Comparing the data to this time last year, contract signings are up 15.5%.

The index is used by the industry as an early indicator of upcoming closings. What do consumers do with this data? Typically not much.

But with all of the positive headlines, homebuyer Alexei F. in Austin, TX tells us that his family is inspired to begin house shopping a year earlier than previously planned.

“We are witnessing a true V-shaped sales recovery as homebuyers continue their strong return to the housing market,” said NAR’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Home sellers are seeing their homes go under contract in record time, with nine new contracts for every 10 new listings.”

The global pandemic restricted the spring buying season, but NAR points out that most states are at least partially reopened, freeing up the pent-up demand.

Dr. Yun said in a statement that there are “no indications that contract activity will wane in the immediate future, particularly in the suburbs.”

Further, he forecasts that existing home sales (closings) will jump to 5.8 million in the second half of this year, creating a rebound and a small (1.1%) gain over 2019. In 2021, he anticipates that with a continuing low interest rate environment, and an economy he expects to expand by 4%, sales could reach 5.86 million.

“Anecdotally, Realtors are telling me there is no shortage of clients or home seekers, but that scarce inventory remains a problem,” Dr. Yun said.

“If 20% more homes were on the market, we would have 20% more sales, because demand is that high,” Dr. Yun observed, adding that he expects housing starts to average at 1.35 million in 2020 and to pick up in 2021, to 1.43 million.

July saw small to large surges regionally, and all have substantial growth compared to July of 2019:

• The Northeast PHSI grew 25.2% to 112.3 in July, a 20.6% jump from a year ago.
• In the Midwest, the index rose 3.3% to 114.6 last month, up 15.4% from July 2019.
• Pending home sales in the South increased 0.9% to an index of 142.0 in July, up 14.9% from July 2019.
• The index in the West rose 6.8% in July to 106.4, up 13.2% from a year ago.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, half of renters in the US were spending 30% of what they earned to pay their rent. For the poorest 20%, on average, more than half of their income went towards paying for housing. Now with much of the service economy and low-income workers hit hard, the pandemic-prompted economic crisis could also become a housing crisis.

According to Apartment List, 24% of Americans did not make a full, on-time housing payment in April. In May, that number rose to 30% and reached 32% in July. Eviction moratoriums across the country, one-time stimulus checks, and expanded unemployment have helped people to stay in their homes for the time being. As those moratoriums expire, expanded unemployment runs out, and court houses reopen; more than 20 million renters could be at risk of eviction by September. Without monthly rent income, landlords can’t make mortgage payments. Mass evictions would be devastating for individuals, families, communities and ultimately economic recovery.

Low-income women, particularly low-income women of color, face higher eviction rates. Women from Black neighborhoods account for 30% of evictions, while only comprising 9.6% of the population. Risk factors for eviction, according to a Policy Research Brief by the MacArthur Foundation, include: having children, lower wages, and domestic violence. Approximately 16 million American children live in households headed by a single mother.

Though it may seem like a repeat of The Great Recession of 2008, it’s not. The previous housing and financial crisis was created by problematic mortgage underwriting that resulted in a housing bubble that burst resulting in soaring foreclosures, falling housing prices and homes left empty. Renters moved into the urban cities. What is happening right now is very different. Renters are moving out of cities, sales for newly built homes have skyrocketed, and there is an undersupply of houses on the market.

What is the same in 2008 and today? An urgent need for policymakers to step in. According to economist Bill McBride, “There are two things we need to do right now.” McBride says “First, we need to keep doing CARES Acts until this is over. If we run the debt up $10 trillion, it will be money saved. Second, we’ve got to get a grip on the pandemic, and that probably means shutting every indoor business down for a few months again and moving as much outdoors as we can.”