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How a COVID-19 vaccine could upend the housing market (again)

(REAL ESTATE BIG DATA) COVID-19 completely changed the trajectory of the housing market, but the promise of a vaccine could pull it back around in another direction.

housing starts

According to CNN Business, “the coronavirus pandemic dramatically changed the landscape of the housing market.” In many expensive urban housing markets, such as Manhattan and San Francisco, vacancy rates are high as people are moving to the suburbs; rents are low in these markets because workers are free from their office jobs.

When combined with low interest rates, this is putting a higher demand on homes in less populated markets. Many people are watching the real estate market closely as vaccines on the horizon promise a return to normal. How could the housing market be affected?

Homeowners still want to work from home to enjoy their sanctuary

The coronavirus reminded people how important home life was. Working from home eliminated commutes and gave workers back some of their time. Even with all the complications of working from home, buyers are looking for homes with a big backyard and space for a home office.

In the Dallas market, starter homes are high in demand. In urban markets that are more expensive, second homes in the rural areas are popular.

People should return to urban areas

As the vaccine gives Americans a return to normal, people will return to the big cities. CNN Business reports that the vacancy rate in Manhattan is 6.14%. Median rental prices are down almost 15% over last year.

As the pandemic comes to an end, it may be a renter’s market until the Fortune 500 companies bring people back to work. A vaccine could also lead to non-US buyers returning to the market, which would make the market more stable.

The vaccine could reverse mortgage rates

Some economists believe that the interest rates will continue to decline, but others suggest that a vaccine could switch the trend. Even so, Marketwatch predicts that many homeowners will still refinance as rates go. Homes will still be in demand, leading to a surge in the housing market.

In fact, a vaccine could mean that more homes will go on the market. Homeowners who hunkered down to ride out the pandemic could be more willing to host open houses and make a move themselves. A vaccine could contribute to supply, which will help buyers get better deals.

The Austin market is strong

Residential sales in the Austin area have increased by 31.5% over last year. Prices have also surged. The median price of a home in Austin’s city limits was $435,000 in August. Sales are expected to slow as supply dwindles. Inventory is limited because people are choosing to stay in their homes. Competition for homes on the market is high, driving prices even higher.

A vaccine is promising for the real estate market

A vaccine should even out the market, but without a crystal ball, it’s hard to know what will happen. Record sales in the Texas market certainly weren’t predicted to be an outcome of a pandemic. It will take time for the economy to level out and for people to get back to work in the entertainment and restaurant industry. How the vaccine impacts the market may depend on location, just as it always has.

Dawn Brotherton is a Sr. Staff Writer at The American Genius with an MFA in Creative Writing from the University of Central Oklahoma. She is an experienced business writer with over 10 years of experience in SEO and content creation. Since 2017, she has earned $60K+ in grant writing for a local community center, which assists disadvantaged adults in the area.

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