Home prices to rise 6.0% in the next year after spiking 8.8% this year

National home prices are expected to rise another 6.0 percent from May 2014 to May 2015 after increasing 8.8 percent in the previous year, according to the May CoreLogic Home Price Index report.

The most recent annual change represents 27 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices, while monthly (including distressed sales), home prices rose 1.4 percent.

“Home prices are continuing to climb across most of the country which has both positive and negative implications for the housing market,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While the rapid rise in prices over the past two years has lifted many homeowners out of negative equity, it has also become a negative factor in buying decisions for prospective purchasers weighing affordability concerns. As we move ahead, a moderation in home price increases over the next twelve months should help cool things down a bit and keep the housing recovery going.”

Regional home prices varied

Although no states posted a depreciation in May 2014, 25 states and D.C. were at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation. In this period, ten states reached new home prices highs, including Alaska, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New York. The strongest appreciation was in the Western United States, led by Hawaii, California, and Nevada.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 8.1 percent in May 2014 compared to May 2013 and 1.2 percent month over month compared to April 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in May.

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Hawaii (+13.2 percent), California (+13.1 percent), Nevada (+12.6 percent), Michigan (+11.8 percent) and New York (+11.0 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: New York (+12.2 percent), Hawaii (+11.6 percent), Nevada (+10.6 percent), California (+10.4 percent) and Florida (+9.6 percent).
• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to May 2014) was -13.5 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.3 percent.
• Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 27 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national average is no longer posting double-digit increases.
• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-38.1 percent), Florida (-34.3 percent), Arizona (-29.2 percent), Rhode Island (-28.7 percent) and New Jersey (-23.0 percent).
• Ninety-four of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in May 2014. The six CBSAs that did not show an increase were: Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; New Haven-Milford, Conn.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; Rochester, N.Y. and Winston-Salem, N.C.

“The pace of home price appreciation is cooling off quickly as the weather warms up,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “May’s 8.8 percent year-over-year growth rate is down almost three percentage points from just three months ago. The influences of modestly rising inventory and less-than-expected demand are causing price growth to moderate toward our forecasted expectations.”