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Real Estate Big Data

NARs top 10 places for millennials to move to

(REAL ESTATE BIG DATA) If you’re a millennial, and wondering where you should move that can get you ahead even during this pandemic, here’s the top 10 cities for millennials.

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An analysis of the largest 100 metropolitan statistical areas in the US by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has resulted in the release of their list of top housing markets for millennials during this pandemic. NAR used housing affordability, local job market conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, share of millennials in the area, and inventory availability as part of their metrics in the development of the list.

“With relatively better employment conditions and a strong presence of millennials in these markets, more new home construction will be required to fully satisfy the housing demand as the economy reopens” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Nationally there has been a 6% increase in the percent of listed homes the typical household can afford to buy since last year, but with median home prices in the $300k and $400k range in some of the top markets, many millennials will still be priced out.

The NAR Top 10 Housing Markets for Millennials during the Pandemic, listed alphabetically:

Austin-Round Rock, Texas:

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 11%
  • Share of Millennials: 35%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -28%
  • Share of most affected employment: 20%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $341,500
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 33%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -9%

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 22%
  • Share of Millennials: 30%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -36%
  • Share of most affected employment: 21%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $269,700
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 30%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -8%

Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 11%
  • Share of Millennials: 31%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -16%
  • Share of most affected employment: 17%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $209,200
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 57%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -10%

Durham-Chapel Hill-Raleigh, North Carolina

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 23%
  • Share of Millennials: 31%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -36%
  • Share of most affected employment: 15%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $293,800
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 26%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -11%

Houston-The Woodlands, Texas

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 14%
  • Share of Millennials: 30%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -31%
  • Share of most affected employment: 19%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $245,300
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 31%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -8%

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 12%
  • Share of Millennials: 30%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -35%
  • Share of most affected employment: 19%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $204,000
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 47%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -11%

Omaha, Nebraska/Council Bluffs, Iowa

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 15%
  • Share of Millennials: 30%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -30%
  • Share of most affected employment: 18%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $197,000
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 38%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -9%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 12%
  • Share of Millennials: 27%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -24%
  • Share of most affected employment: 21%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $308,900
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 29%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -8%

Portland, Oregon/Vancouver, Washington

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 17%
  • Share of Millennials: 27%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -41%
  • Share of most affected employment: 19%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $416,100
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 20%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -12%

Salt Lake City, Utah

  • Affordability, April 2020 (y-y change): 13%
  • Share of Millennials: 32%
  • New Listings, April 2020 (y-y change): -14%
  • Share of most affected employment: 18%
  • Median Home Price (Q1 2020): $372,100
  • Share of listings that the typical household can afford to buy (April 2020): 30%
  • Employment y-y change (April 2020): -8%

Yasmin Diallo Turk is a long-time Austinite, non-profit professional in the field of sexual and domestic violence, and graduate of both Huston-Tillotson University and the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas. When not writing for AG she should be writing her dissertation but is probably just watching Netflix with her husband and 3 kids or running volunteer projects for HOPE for Senegal.

Real Estate Big Data

5 major ways AI is shifting the real estate scene and how to utilize it

(REAL ESTATE BIG DATA) Artificial intelligence is bringing a seismic shift to commercial real estate in everything from investing to sales to property management. Hold on!

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Woman working at desk with multiple desktops open to AI tools.

Forget about that location thing. Now real estate – especially commercial real estate – is about data, data, data. As in, Really. Big. Data. And AI is owed a large part of the credit for that.

A dizzying amount of data is being crunched and sorted and searched by artificial intelligence-enabled tools that are changing how deals get done and who will still have a job in the future.

The promise of AI to use data to predict the future is massive – and it promises to do that with more accuracy and efficiency, greater productivity, and less cost for commercial as well as residential real estate.

So, what, exactly, can AI do for commercial real estate? Let’s break it down.

What AI is

To put it simply, artificial intelligence is what lets Amazon’s Alexa talk to you and cars drive themselves. Its algorithms use data to mimic human intelligence, including learning and reasoning. Then there’s machine learning, where algorithms analyze enormous amounts of data to make predictions and assist with decision making. We’re putting them both under the same AI umbrella.

There are four main areas where AI is remaking the commercial real estate industry: development and investing; sales and leasing; marketing; and property management.

Development and investing

With its ability to quickly analyze a staggering amount of data, AI lets investors and developers make better data-driven decisions. More responsive financial modeling helps identify ideal use cases and project ROI under multiple scenarios using real-time data. Pulling in alternative data – say, environmental changes or infrastructure improvements – goes beyond traditional data points and can identify investment opportunities, such as neighborhoods beginning to gentrify. In fact, alternative, hyper-local data has become even more important as COVID-19 continues to upend property valuation models.

AI’s crystal ball comes from recognizing patterns in the data and continuing to learn from new information. It can forecast risk, market fluctuations, property values, demographic trends, occupancy rates and other considerations that can make or break a deal.

And it does all of this more efficiently, more accurately and less expensively than manual methods.

Sales and leasing

There’s a big question looming over AI and automation: Will technology put real estate brokers out of business? The short answer is, “No, but brokers need to step up their tech game.”

Keeping up with – and being open to – tech trends is essential. Clients’ ability to use online marketplaces to search for or list property will only grow, but there still is no substitute for expertise and the personal rapport that builds trust. Chatbots can’t negotiate (yet). Robots can’t show a space and weave details about the property into a story. (If you want to know more about using storytelling in real estate, check out this great marketing guide.)

But Big Data is such a powerful tool that brokers need to know how to harness it for themselves. Having more, and more nuanced, data about clients and properties means brokers can better match the two. They can be more confident in setting sales prices and rental rates. Becoming a “technology strategist” to help clients design an automation strategy for a property would be a great value add to their services. Even just starting out with a website chatbot to answer common questions would add a level of tech-savvy efficiency to communication with clients and prospects.

Marketing

Also a boon of Big Data for brokers: more sophisticated, targeted marketing for themselves, as well as for client properties.

Integrating AI with customer relationship management (CRM) tools brings a richer understanding of clients and prospects that can make choosing marketing channels and personalizing targeted content more precise.

Then there’s data-driven lead scoring. Property intelligence firm Reonomy says its commercial data mine – 52 million properties, 100 million companies, 30 million personal profiles, and 53 million tenants – can be searched in multiple ways to create custom prospect lists. (Check out Forbes.com’s “5 Ways Artificial Intelligence is Transforming CRMs” for a fascinating list of what AI can do, including analyzing conversations for sentiment analysis.)

Property and facility management

The Internet of Things (IoT) is already helping property and facilities managers control and predict energy costs, as well as proactively address maintenance issues. Integrating smart technology like thermostats and sensors with AI also means more efficient space planning. Smart security cameras and wi-fi tracking can create “people heat maps” that can identify underutilized or overcrowded areas.

IBM’s TRIRIGA does that and more. Part of the Watson project, TRIRIGA offers AI-driven insights to show how people are actually using a space and ensure a company has the right amount of space in the right areas. It can also analyze common questions from a chat log, then use that data to create an AI virtual assistant to automatically answer those questions – and update itself as it learns new data. Maintenance requests, room reservations and more can be fully automated.

Strategic space planning has become even more important during the pandemic, as work-from-home trends and safety concerns reshape offices as workers return. (Need ideas for your office? IBM’s Returning to the Workplace guide might be a good place to start.)

Barriers to adoption

There’s no question tech-enabled commercial real estate companies will have a competitive edge. The question is, when will more of them agree enough to adopt AI more widely?

PropTech with and without AI has exploded over the past few years – and that’s part of the problem. In an Altus Group survey, 89% of CRE executives said the PropTech space needs significant consolidation before it can effectively deliver on industry needs; 43% said that is already underway or will occur within 12 months.

Then there’s the undeniable learning curve that comes with any tech tool – an investment of time as well as money. The survey also showed concerns about regulatory requirements for data collection and management, having enough internal capacity, and nonstandard data formats.

Despite those perceived barriers, there’s also no question that innovation and disruption from AI are moving at a dizzying pace – and that commercial real estate needs to keep pace.

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Real Estate Big Data

How a COVID-19 vaccine could upend the housing market (again)

(REAL ESTATE BIG DATA) COVID-19 completely changed the trajectory of the housing market, but the promise of a vaccine could pull it back around in another direction.

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A house at dusk with lights illuminated, favored by housing market.

According to CNN Business, “the coronavirus pandemic dramatically changed the landscape of the housing market.” In many expensive urban housing markets, such as Manhattan and San Francisco, vacancy rates are high as people are moving to the suburbs; rents are low in these markets because workers are free from their office jobs.

When combined with low interest rates, this is putting a higher demand on homes in less populated markets. Many people are watching the real estate market closely as vaccines on the horizon promise a return to normal. How could the housing market be affected?

Homeowners still want to work from home to enjoy their sanctuary

The coronavirus reminded people how important home life was. Working from home eliminated commutes and gave workers back some of their time. Even with all the complications of working from home, buyers are looking for homes with a big backyard and space for a home office.

In the Dallas market, starter homes are high in demand. In urban markets that are more expensive, second homes in the rural areas are popular.

People should return to urban areas

As the vaccine gives Americans a return to normal, people will return to the big cities. CNN Business reports that the vacancy rate in Manhattan is 6.14%. Median rental prices are down almost 15% over last year.

As the pandemic comes to an end, it may be a renter’s market until the Fortune 500 companies bring people back to work. A vaccine could also lead to non-US buyers returning to the market, which would make the market more stable.

The vaccine could reverse mortgage rates

Some economists believe that the interest rates will continue to decline, but others suggest that a vaccine could switch the trend. Even so, Marketwatch predicts that many homeowners will still refinance as rates go. Homes will still be in demand, leading to a surge in the housing market.

In fact, a vaccine could mean that more homes will go on the market. Homeowners who hunkered down to ride out the pandemic could be more willing to host open houses and make a move themselves. A vaccine could contribute to supply, which will help buyers get better deals.

The Austin market is strong

Residential sales in the Austin area have increased by 31.5% over last year. Prices have also surged. The median price of a home in Austin’s city limits was $435,000 in August. Sales are expected to slow as supply dwindles. Inventory is limited because people are choosing to stay in their homes. Competition for homes on the market is high, driving prices even higher.

A vaccine is promising for the real estate market

A vaccine should even out the market, but without a crystal ball, it’s hard to know what will happen. Record sales in the Texas market certainly weren’t predicted to be an outcome of a pandemic. It will take time for the economy to level out and for people to get back to work in the entertainment and restaurant industry. How the vaccine impacts the market may depend on location, just as it always has.

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Real Estate Big Data

Austin real estate will still be hot post-COVID, just different

(REAL ESTATE BIG DATA) While Austin real estate has gone through some changes in the pandemic, commercial and residential markets are still hot with no signs of slowing down.

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Austin real estate shown in the skyline of the Texas city.

The Austin, Texas real estate market looks set to be just as hot post-COVID-19 as it was before the coronavirus pandemic—though it may look a little different.

In October, the Austin Business Journal convened a panel of experts to discuss the future of real estate in the Texas capital. These included Sean Bukowski, the owner of the Bukowski Law Firm, Investors Alliance Inc., President Diana Zuniga, Affordable Central Texas CEO David Steinwedell, Presario Ventures Principal Darin Davis, and Sabot Development Managing Partner Jim Young.

Despite COVID-19’s adverse effects on the economy, the residential real estate sector has continued to remain hot, with industrial space booming as well.

According to the Urban Land Institute’s annual report, Austin is the second-best real estate market in the country going into 2021, though it did hold the top spot in the institute’s previous reports. That doesn’t mean the Austin real estate sector has come away completely unscathed from the pandemic, however, as leasing seems to be an area of concern.

“In terms of leasing, leasing just came to a screeching halt. We had several good prospects for our building — it’s 123,000 square feet and by April everybody was just on hold.” Zuniga said, “A few people now are stirring but the transaction volume overall, if you read the reports, is really down.”

Downtown offices are also feeling the current effects of the coronavirus. Zuniga stated that the latest surveys found office buildings downtown to be “running at 20% capacity” at the moment. This would affect not only the businesses who are leasing downtown area buildings but the restaurants and retail spaces who make a large part of their revenue from the office crowds. Although many experts on the panel believe that the sector will rebound, it will most likely be with different companies that are there currently.

“The downside is that it’s likely going to be with a lot of different players than it was before.” Bukowski said when asked about the downtown area, “Because we represent a number of music venues, for example, and they’re not coming back anytime soon and probably not going to make it, unfortunately.”

Exactly what things will look like in Austin when the COVID-19 pandemic is over is anyone’s guess, but things are certainly shifting across the country—and Austin might not be immune.

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