While the economy is looking good and housing is still booming, analysts have suggested 2020 could be the year for a recession.
The discussion took place during the National Association of Realtors 2019 Realtors Conference and Expo held recently in San Francisco. Three experts were allowed to share their thoughts on the market, highlighting current trends and projecting what might happen in the coming year.
The discussion was a mixed bag, with Dr. Lawrence Yun, a chief economist and senior vice president of research at NAR saying the economy looks promising.
Citing strong job creation in every state and a healthy consumer activity, Yun said, “I do not foresee a recession.” But, he added, some analysts believe because it’s been more than 10 years since the last major downturn, “the country is due for a recession.”
Even so, Yun said that unlike previous recessions, the current economic situation in the US today is much better. Yet, more countries are facing challenging economic situations, including Germany, which is said to be in the middle of a slight recession. Even in a scenario where the US avoids a full-on recession, the economy could be at risk, he said. If more countries are faced with restricted global trade, that would have negative consequences for the US.
“The hope is that no other country has to deal with that. If other countries go down, it would be impossible for America to grow,” Yun said.
Agreeing to disagree, Kenneth T. Rosen, chairman of the Rosen Consulting Group, said “I think there is a rising risk of recession. If some things go wrong, we could get a recession.”
What are those things: failure to create a truce with China over tariffs and the results of the 2020 election. Depending on those outcomes, they could spur a decline.
Yet, Rosen said he was leaning toward Yun’s expectation of the US avoiding a recession.
“Around the country we have pretty strong job creation, we’re adding lots of jobs,” Rosen said. “Consumers feel great so there are no signs of a recession, although a trade war does cause uncertainty. I think if we’re smart, we’ll get a truce on this and we’ll go forward.”