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NAR: How will a Trump presidency impact real estate?

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) With Trump in power and Republicans taking the House and Senate, what does this mean for real estate practitioners and homeowners?

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Did the election help or hurt real estate?

Regardless of how you feel about the national election results, it appears homeowners and Realtor populations will benefit from them.

“It was a great night for us,” NAR Senior Vice President Jerry Giovaniello said regarding the Realtor Party (RPAC), and thereby the Realtor population and homeowners.

Giovaniello reports that over 90 percent of races RPAC was involved in were won last night, which is a huge win given that members of Congress are aware of this track record.

With Republicans controlling the White House, Congress, and Senate, what of state and local elections? NAR Political Consultant Doug Sosnik pointed to three election wins that RPAC was highly involved in – Governor Gary Herbert (R-UT), Governor Phil Scott (R-VT), and a constitutional amendment in Missouri to ban sales taxes on services.

Will Trump support the Mortgage Interest Deduction?

Under a Trump administration, Giovaniello says that because of Trump’s knowledge of real estate and development, he will have valuable input to offer Congressional tax committees, based on his “successes and shortcomings.”

It appears, however, that with Republicans at the helm, several tax incentives could be at risk.

When politicians say we must “simplify tax codes,” Giovaniello hears it as a euphemism for “going after homeownership incentives” like the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID). There are already proposals on the table, and Giovaniello says they’re already talking to the authors on both sides of the aisle.

“The Realtor platform did mention that [the MID] is important, but they weren’t very specific, nor were Democrats on this,” noted Giovaniello. What does a Trump presidency mean for the MID? “We’re not exactly sure,” given that what will be prioritized won’t be clear until he is sworn in. Trump has indicated he supports the MID, however, and Giovaniello points out that Trump “knows the tax code as far as real estate is concerned, and has used it very successfully.

What about 1031 Exchanges or land real estate?

Regarding land real estate, NAR has long dealt with these issues (be they water, environmental, or other). Giovaniello notes that how they will be impacted by the election results “remains to be seen,” as the administration’s priorities have yet to be revealed.

Further, 1031 exchanges are in the crosshairs, and Giovaniello says they’re “in trouble next year,” because in recent years, both Congress and the administration have said we should limit these tax deferrals. There are proposals from both sides to limit 1031s, with the belief that the same numbers of transactions will happen regardless. “That’s just not the case,” Giovaniello asserts, noting there is a great deal of data to support the claim.

Will fear chill foreign investments?

Some areas are doing quite well as a result of foreign investments in the real estate markets, but will the perception regarding Trump’s attitude impact sales?

Trump “has very strong opinions on immigration, so whether that leads to a chilling effect in the short term” is unclear, notes Giovaniello, reiterating that until priorities are set, we simply don’t know. “It’s something we have to be alert to,” he said.

Will Dodd-Frank or the CFPB be touched?

Sosnik and Giovaniello agreed that the election results spell a federal trend toward deregulation with a state/local trend toward more regulations.Click To Tweet

For example, Trump has blasted Dodd-Frank on the election trail, and much conversation has centered around loosening Dodd-Frank regulations as the economy has improved. Giovaniello anticipates impending debates as to whether or not regulations should be imposed on the “non-bank banks,” where half of all mortgage lending now takes place.

The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau regulations, and environmental regulations may also be on the table under Trump, with RPAC looking to keep the cost of building affordable housing and low as they continue to fight for homeownership.

Home buying incentives and flood insurance

As homeownership rates creep back up, Giovaniello doesn’t anticipate new tax credits for the purchase of a home under a Trump administration, noting a more likely scenario would be student loan refinance initiatives. Republicans believe that FHA should be available for first-time or low-income borrowers, but want to end incentives for high-income Americans. That appears to be the direction incentives will head.

One federal item RPAC is watching closely is the flood insurance bill, as each region has an opinion on what should be done, continuing a cycle of Congressional extensions to bridge times of disagreement.

NAR’s focus isn’t on the presidency. Why?

Although NAR pollsters followed the national election, the organization maintains a “hands off” policy, which Giovaniello says is “wise.” He notes it can be cost prohibitive, their grassroots make them “the most effective association in D.C.,” and that most of their business is done at the Senate and House of Representatives where they “can have an impact.”

“Our strength is a bipartisan approach,” Giovaniello adds.

Gridlock, and gobs of governors

Will there be gridlock under a Trump presidency? Giovaniello doesn’t think that’s going away, but says “The American people voted for change yesterday. I think either party that doesn’t embrace that is going to be in bad shape, starting right now, as a matter of fact.”

Sosnik notes that regardless of last night’s results, in 2018, there will be 38 governor elections, over half of which will be open seats, making real estate practitioners and homeowners “vulnerable.”

What will RPAC do? “Make your friends before you need them,” Giovaniello and Sosnik agreed. “We’re about to have a new, impactful class of governors, so we need to get in early now, before campaigns start,” said Sosnik, noting they must proactively engage the candidates.

The goal of the Realtor Party

Sosnik said, “no other organization has the capacity to be more impactful than Realtors – they’re in every community, are leaders in the community,” and it is essential to engage locals in what has become a “permanent campaign style,” with locals being highly interactive with their representatives.

The goal of the Realtor Party is to coordinate national, state, and local levels and leverage their national scale to enable those at the local level that know their communities best. Sosnik says they will continue this proactive approach toward politics.

“Trump has been a dealmaker all of his life”

“There will be compromises,” Giovaniello notes. “Trump has been a dealmaker all of this life. I’m optimistic on our issues,” even in a busy year coming up with focus being directly on flood insurance and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac reform.

In conclusion, Giovaniello says of the election results, RPAC “did very well,” winning 90% of the races they were involved in, but are now preparing for post-election life now that the chips have fallen, by planning for the coming battle over federal and state regulations and a massive national gubernatorial race.

Take some time out to watch the full video interview with Giovaniello and Sosnik:

#2016election

Lani is the Chief Operating Officer at The Real Daily and sister news outlet, The American Genius, and has been named in the Inman 100 Most Influential Real Estate Leaders several times, co-authored a book, co-founded BASHH and Austin Digital Jobs, and is a seasoned business writer and editorialist with a penchant for the irreverent.

Fair Housing

When a WWII vet returned home and was denied fair housing, the course of history forever changed

Did you know that Fair Housing was inspired by a vet who volunteered his life to defend our nation, only to come home and be denied housing? What has happened since legislation was enacted and what is going on today? NAR CEO Bob Goldberg weighs in.

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Senator Brooke - Fair Housing pioneer

April marks the passage of the Fair Housing act of 1968, which the REALTOR® population commemorates, recomitting to expanded equal access to housing. Offering more texture to the ongoing fair housing challenge in America, the following editorial is penned by Bob Goldberg, CEO of the National Association of Realtors®, America’s largest trade association:


The legislation was going nowhere. At least not in a form that would have done much good.

Following months of debate amid nationwide unrest, the version of H.R. 2516 that cleared the U.S. House of Representatives was diluted and largely impotent.

Then it waited – idle – in the Senate for the remainder of 1967.

When the upper chamber eventually (reluctantly) took up the bill, the junior Senator from Massachusetts took the floor. Edward Brooke then told a story that’s as powerful today as it was 54 years ago.

Enlisting in the United States Army immediately after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor, Edward Brooke was assigned to the segregated 366th Infantry Regiment and soon entered into European Theater from the unit’s outpost in Italy. There, Brooke’s fluency in Italian was a tremendous asset to Allied war efforts, his covert actions in Axis territory earning a Bronze Star Medal for service in a combat zone.

He returned home a decorated veteran, a member of the group that would reverently be known as America’s “Greatest Generation” for its defeat of fascism and its persistence through the Great Depression.

Yet Brooke, who would become the first Black American popularly elected to the U.S. Senate, found himself denied the ability to compete for certain homes in certain neighborhoods because of the color of his skin.

“In the hierarchy of American values, there can be no higher standard than equal justice for each individual,” Brooke said in the winter of 1968. “By that standard, who could question the right of every American to compete on equal terms for adequate housing for his family?”

For Brooke, with his new wife and a blossoming family, the experience was devastating. But it was far from unique. Even for those returning as heroes from Europe and the Pacific.

While the GI bill promised to repay American soldiers for their immense sacrifices in World War II, many of those benefits were in truth only promised to White veterans.

“Here we were… fighting for freedom overseas when we did not have freedom at home. We had hoped and prayed that when the war was over… things would [be] different,” he said years later. “But when we came back, it was just business as usual.”

The encounter prompted Brooke to enroll in law school at Boston University, setting him on the path to public service.

With redlining pervasive in post-World War II America, historian Ira Katznelson notes that non-whites purchased “fewer than 100 of the 67,000 mortgages insured by the GI bill” in suburban New York City. Across 1947 Mississippi, just two of more than 3,100 VA-guaranteed home loans went to Black borrowers.

Something, it was clear in Brooke’s mind, had to change.

“Fair housing [was always] a problem for me,” Brooke recounted in 2007. “I lived in a time when you had redlining, where Blacks couldn’t get mortgages in certain areas… And I just believed that something had to be done dramatically, but effectively, to bring about fair housing in this country. So, I introduced legislation.”

Today, Brooke and Walter Mondale are recognized as the fathers of fair housing.

Together, these Senators from opposing parties and divergent backgrounds drafted S. 1358, the Fair Housing Act of 1968. Its language would eventually be adopted into the same H.R. 2516, legislation known officially as the Civil Rights Act of 1968. This initial bill had been watered down so much through House debate that its only real, remaining purpose prior to the adoption of S. 1358 was to protect civil rights workers.

As I outlined back in February, the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. catalyzed Congress into final, definitive action on housing, applying the public pressure and motivation lawmakers needed to move the Fair Housing Act from proposal to policy.

But it was Senator Brooke’s powerful experience as a Black veteran denied the inalienable right to property that helped birth the landmark law we now celebrate each April.

Senator Brooke - Fair Housing

This fight for equal rights and equal access throughout society persists in various forms, overt and obscure. In employment and education and health care. And, still, in housing.

Today, Realtors® and real estate agents play a unique role in the realization of the Fair Housing Act. The 1.5 million members of the National Association of Realtors® are on the front lines with consumers — both buyers and sellers — and see firsthand where discrimination is experienced.

Back in 2019, NAR began developing an implicit bias training video to share with our members and other industry professionals. This resource drew upon the latest scientific research to illustrate how our brains’ automatic, instant association of stereotypes causes us to treat different groups of people unfairly. The video has today been viewed by tens of thousands of Realtors®.

Building off its success, NAR earlier this month unveiled a new implicit bias classroom training program, which is eligible for state-level continuing education credit. (To maintain real estate licensure, agents and brokers are required by their respective state’s real estate commission to regularly complete a pre-determined amount of continuing education hours.)

The training explains how our unconscious brains immediately categorize people in the human effort to process information more quickly.

It then offers participants various tactics to help break down stereotypical thinking, ultimately allowing each client and consumer to be treated with an equal level of concern and respect.

NAR invited many of the most experienced trainers already engaged with At Home with Diversity® to complete the intensive, two-day certification process requisite to leading Realtors® through the program.

Ultimately, our hope is that this effort will raise the bar on the overall quality and expectations of fair housing training in this country.

But making housing fair in America requires so much more than a focus on implicit bias, a fact NAR recognizes well.

In his memoirs, Senator Brooke wrote that “the issue of open housing went beyond politics and asked white America to cast off prejudice… and to embrace justice for all.” He knew that justice, true justice, was not possible without true fair housing in America.

Edward Brooke laid his life on the line to preserve the principles of freedom, democracy, and justice. His experiences — his story — remain a critical component of our broader, national story. And it’s a constant, explicit example of everything our modern-day pursuit of fair housing embodies.

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Politics

FCC looking into how landlords are getting around predatory ISP laws

(NEWS) It became illegal in 2008 for landlords to restrict ISP access to their “partners,” but the FCC is looking into loopholes allowing the practice to persist.

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Person typing on computer representing marketing typos.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently announced it is seeking comments on broadband access in multi-tenant buildings.

The FCC wants to gain a better understanding of consumer choice and pricing in apartment and office buildings. Even though most cities have multiple internet service providers (ISPs), renters are often stuck with only one option due to agreements between ISPs and landlords. 


The Wireline Competition Bureau is seeking comments about:

  • Revenue sharing agreements between landlords and ISPs, which incentivizes the landlord to steer tenants to a certain provider.
  • Exclusive wiring agreements in which a landlord says only one ISP can provide service to the building.
  • Exclusive marketing agreements in which only one ISP is allowed to market in the building.

In 2008, the FCC banned exclusive contracts for telecommunications services in apartment buildings.

Even so, ISPs and landlords have found ways to circumvent the rules, preventing tenants from having internet options. A landlord is prohibited from contracting with an ISP for sole service to a building.

One way to get around this rule is to deed ownership of the wiring to the landlord, allowing the landlord to decide which companies have access or not. The FCC rules do not apply, because the landlord owns the wiring.

ISPs can also enter into an agreement with landlords to prevent advertising in the building. The landlord can impose fees on companies that need access to install new wiring. All of these practices block competition for tenants, which drives up prices and limits options, and is the focus of the FCC’s push.

The FCC wants to hear from consumers who have dealt with broadband building restrictions. Tenants, landlords, real estate agents and even ISP owners can comment on the FCC proceedings for 30 days following the public notice.

If you’re a property owner, it’s time to review your agreements in this area to make sure you don’t end up in the FCC’s crosshairs now or in the future.

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Politics

Housing supply crisis: NAR insists governments take ‘once-in-a-generation’ action

(POLITICS) After years of sounding the alarm bell regarding housing supply and demand imbalances, NAR is pushing local and federal governments to respond “immediately.”

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home sales

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has repeatedly beat the drum for over six years regarding housing supply, so much so that perhaps real estate practitioners have simply accepted it as the ongoing problem that it is. But in a new report by Rosen Consulting Group, released by NAR, housing supply is officially in crisis across all regions.

NAR Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun has reiterated in most reports for years that the only relief for increasingly tight inventory levels lies an increase in housing starts, placing industry hopes firmly in the hands of American homebuilders who are strapped with lending standards that shifted after the 2008 housing crash, now paired with labor shortages and astronomically skyrocketing pricing on materials.

NAR reports that after decades of under-building and under-investment, housing is now in more of a “dire” status than previously expected. The report, “Critical Infrastructure: Social and Economic Benefits of Building More Housing” asserts that local and federal policymakers must consider “once-in-a-generation” action and that “no matter the approach,” action must be “immediate.”

For an organization that typically employs very tempered wording, this aggressive language is alarming.

As bloggers scream “housing bubble” and analysts warn the script looks nothing like 2008, the timing of this report and the alarm bells being run by NAR are not to be ignored.

“The state of America’s housing stock… is dire, with a chronic shortage of affordable and available homes [needed to support] the nation’s population,” the report asserts. “A severe lack of new construction and prolonged underinvestment [have led] to an acute shortage of available housing… to the detriment of the health of the public and the economy. The scale of underbuilding and the existing demand-supply gap is enormous… and will require a major national commitment to build more housing of all types.”

Dr. Yun notes “It’s clear from the findings of this report and from the conditions we’ve observed in the market over the past few years that we’ll need to do something dramatic to close this gap” between hopeful homebuyers and tightened supply levels.

The report urges lawmakers to “expand access to resources, remove barriers to and incentivize new development, and make housing construction an integral part of a national infrastructure strategy.”

NAR President Charlie Oppler, says that adequate increases in housing construction this decade would add an estimated 2.8 million American jobs and $50 billion in new, nationwide tax revenue. “Additional public funding and policy incentives for construction will very clearly provide huge benefits to our nation’s economy, and our work to close this gap will be particularly impactful for lower-income households, households of color and millennials.”

Earlier this year, NAR encouraged policymakers to reform zoning and permitting policies, also recommending other policies to address national housing supply shortages.

At that time, it sounded like an urgent request. Today, we hear an alarm bell, a demand.

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