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Economics

New challenge: Homebuilders say they can’t find labor workers

Homebuilders are slow to deliver homes, claiming they can’t find labor workers – how did this come to be?

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new home construction

The construction labor market reached a peak in 2006, but the economy couldn’t sustain the number of workers when the real estate market dropped. Now that employment is back up, new home builders are seeing an improvement in purchases.

This should be good news, but instead of facing a lack of customers, they’re now seeing a labor shortage in carpenters and electricians that is making it difficult to meet demand. In Arizona, it can take up to a year to complete a new home when it used to take five to six months.

Lack of workers holding homebuilders back

Shea Homes, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., William Lyon Homes, and Meritage Homes Corp. have all pointed to the lack of workers as the reason many homes are not being completed as quick as desired. Earlier this year, this situation was more isolated. There were just a few markets that experienced slow building times, but it is becoming much more widespread.

Although some economists think that the shortage is bogus based on the evidence. Construction wages are not rising as fast as they would if there was truly a shortage. The unemployment rate for construction workers should be lower too. In August 2015, the rate was 7.5 percent. According to the economists at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. the data doesn’t support the anecdotal complaints.

NAHB says specialties are lacking

The National Association of Home Builders says that the disconnect between the builders and economists is because of specialties that are most in demand. The industry needs framers and carpenters, which are skillsets not easily transferable to other fields.

It takes training and experience to understand the specifications of construction, which means it won’t be an easy fix to get laborers.

NAHB explains the shortage

The reason for the worker shortage can be attributed to increased border enforcement and an increased Mexican economy, which keeps international workers from coming to the country. It’s estimated that about 22 percent of the construction laborers are foreign born. The housing recession forced many workers to find alternate employment, which also depleted the work force.

The Texas market is also facing a number of delays in new home building not just due to a lack of laborers but because of heavy rains in the spring. Workers could not pour concrete and many properties were damaged during the torrential downpours that plagued the state. Although many companies are looking outside of their local markets to expand the labor force, it is still going to take time to build a new home.

#BuilderCrisis

Dawn Brotherton is a Staff Writer at The American Genius, and has an MFA in Creative Writing from the University of Central Oklahoma. Before earning her degree, she spent over 20 years homeschooling her two daughters, who are now out changing the world. She lives in Oklahoma and loves to golf. She hopes to publish a novel in the future.

Economics

Why it’s about to get more expensive to get a mortgage

(FINANCE) Borrowing money is getting more expensive, especially for those looking to get a mortgage. But why?

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bonds and mortgages

Although there have been some blips, bonds have grown substantially in value since the 1980s. They’ve performed extremely well for a number of reasons, not least of which is the big slowdown in inflation over that time period.

The result, for investors, has been that anything “bond-lik,e” i.e. capable of paying a regular income – like a high-dividend stock or even a property like your home – has shot up in value. A reversal of bond prices would mean less support for such investments.

That’s what the economy is currently experiencing. According to Financial Times, American worker wage growth is hastening the sell-off of bonds by the US government, which is decreasing the overall price of bonds. As bond prices go down, the interest rates that they offer new investors go up. That rate jumped to 2.85 percent last Friday, the highest level since 2014.

Since the rates at which banks lend their money are largely based on the interest rates offered by bonds, regular folks looking to take out a mortgage or a loan are facing higher costs.

How does this work?

If we’re talkin’ bond prices, we’re talkin’ yield. When the price of a bond goes up, the yield of that bond goes down! Let’s say you’re getting paid $5 each year. If you pay $50 for that right, then you’re making a 10% “yield” (5/50 = 10%). But if you pay $100 for that right, then you’re making a 5% “yield” (5/100 = 5%).

It’s the same thing with the price of a bond because the amount a bond investor gets paid (usually) is fixed. And so, when the bond goes up in value, the “yield” goes down – and vice versa.

For realtors, its important to help clients shop for the best rates to improve their confidence in this market. Leveraging the right online and local financing resources can help potential buyers get the best deal. Explaining broader market context is also critical. Historically, a three percent interest rate is still very low.

According to Investopedia, mortgage rates averaged 7.81% in 1996 and 10.19% in 1986. Instilling confidence with information will put buyers and sellers in the right place to make moves.

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Economics

How does this soft jobs report impact the housing market?

(REAL ESTATE NEWS) When we see a soft jobs report, does that hurt or help the housing market? We talk to two economists about it.

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In a year of political uncertainty, the release of any jobs report is polarizing. Political figures and armchair policy wonks will read into the data as they wish, but not housing economists.

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That’s who we look to in these times, because we all know that jobs is the cure-all for a recovering economy, but payroll growth slumped in September as the U.S. Labor Department reports that employers added only 156,000 jobs.

This fell short of the 172,000 originally projected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Hidden positives in the report

Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist at Trulia said, “While the September jobs report came in below expectations, the continued addition of jobs to the US economy will help buoy demand for homes, both on the for-sale and rental side of the market.”

He observed another positive hidden in the Labor Department result. “In addition, wage growth kicked up again, which will help bolster the savings of first-time homebuyers trying to scrape together a downpayment.”

Real estate remains unchanged

“Given no major surprise in the data, the national outlook for real estate market remains essentially unchanged, with home sales expected to squeak out slight gains in 2016 and 2017 while commercial building vacancy rates should continue to fall,” said NAR Chief Economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun.

Yun adds that “we should note that men have been underperforming as 68.4% of adults have jobs, down from historic norm of around 75%. Meanwhile, 55.8% of women have jobs, roughly matching the historic norms.”

Pointing out that the data is being “digested” through the perspective of the upcoming election, Dr. Yun notes that, “among men, those with a college degree 72% of adults are working while only 54% of those with only a high school degree are working.”

Dr. Yun observes, “There will surely be a big divergent voting patterns among men versus women and among those with college education and those without in November.”

#jobsVhousing

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Economics

Mortgage companies hiring time travelers to uncover missing documents?

(MORTGAGE NEWS) – Mortgage companies are hiring for an interesting new position that may speak to their role in the economic crash of 2008.

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During the Great Recession of 2008, it’s been estimated that around seven million Americans lost their home. Many of the homes that went into foreclosure did so because people lost their jobs, and just gave up on their home. In some, people got kicked out based on false documentation, faulty paperwork or just downright illegal mortgage servicing. Numerous lawsuits have been filed and won by homeowners who were wrongfully evicted.

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In California, in Yvanova v. New Century Mortgage Corporation, the California Supreme Court ruled that plaintiffs held the right to contest foreclosures when documentation (in this case, a mortgage transfer that was allegedly void) was not handled correctly. The Court didn’t determine validity of the document in Yvanova’s case, just that she had the right to contest the foreclosure.

New jobs in mortgage documentation

According to David Dayen, who wrote Chain of Title, this phenomenon has brought new jobs to the market. Career Builder lists a job for a “Default Breach Specialist” posted by a recruiting firm in Jacksonville, Florida. The primary characteristics for this position:

“The Default Breach Specialist responsibilities include ensuring all breach letters are issued as required by investors, insurers and/or State Law.  Responsible for ordering title, reviewing title and all security documents to identify missing assignments needed to complete the chain of title prior to foreclosure referral.”

Seeking time travelers

According to Dayen, all the assignments of mortgage should have been prepared and recorded at the time of the sale or transfer. He questions why any mortgage company would need to order these documents.

In Yvanova’s case, it’s alleged that the mortgage was not converted into the trust in a legal fashion. In many of the cases involving foreclosure, third parties were hired to produce the paperwork that conveyed a mortgage into the trust. Dayen alleges that many of these companies “mocked up” documentation.

Although it is possible that the mortgage company is simply looking for someone to make sure everything is in the case file, it’s also possible (some would say highly likely) that some documents may never be found because they don’t exist.

The failure to follow the law as it pertains to property records is so bad that companies are now hiring chain of title specialists to manage the problem. This does not put the real estate industry in the best light.

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